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Drafts are a lot like soups and stews; some taste better after a day or two in the fridge, while others just go bad right away. As a newcomer to this league, I am fascinated by the concept of upcoming Free Agent draft/auction and spent a fair amount of time looking at how it worked last year. Conceptually, it is an opportunity for teams that are rebuilding and loaded with cap space to get players that the more successful teams can’t afford; in reality, quite a few guys end up being overpaid and who end up as one year wonders. The goal should always be to have as much of your salary cap invested in guys whose salary is from production, not speculation, and have a salary next year that at least approaches what the bid price this season was. Teams with tons of cap space have no advantage NOT spending it, but which guys are on an upwards projector, and which guys are sliding into the abyss. Here are 5 guys I am watching where questions abound.
5) CB Darious Williams: Len pointed out in a separate article that not many 9 rated CB’s get to the free agent pool, but Williams is a case to look at with a few red flags. For starters, he is 27 years old and was an undrafted free agent with Baltimore in 2018. Now, with the depth of quality corners on that roster, it’s not crazy that the Ravens cut him during that rookie year, allowing Williams to be picked up by the Rams. Two years later, Darious Williams is starting opposite Jalen Ramsey, becoming one of the top-rated CB’s per PFF, and came out of nowhere to be the top rated free agent in just about every Action PC football league out there. All that said, it’s almost unheard of for corners to come out of nowhere and be considered #1 shutdown corners, and Williams is currently on a 1 year tender contract with the Rams, who will find it hard to keep Ramsey, Williams and Aaron Donald on the same team. As long as Williams can maintain a level of play that allows him to be a #1 or #2 corner, he may very well be worth the huge sum of money it’s going to take to land him; the question is where does he end up after this coming season and can he replicate that great season going forward?
4) RB James Robinson: It seems like just about every season there is an undrafted running back who comes out of nowhere and leads their respective team in rushing (reason #317 why drafting running backs in the first round should be frowned on as much as drafting kickers at all). So what does Jacksonville do? Of course, they draft Travis Etienne in the first round, going to show that some teams just stay the way they always were. Yes, Travis Etienne had one of the most stellar careers in college as a running back, and yes, he is almost like a wide receiver in the backfield, and double yes, him and Trevor Lawrence can probably order off the menu for each other at the local diner….but you already had a bruising 225 pound running back that gained 4.5 ypc behind a putrid offensive line and also caught 49 passes from the likes of Gardner Minshew and also have a colander for a defense. The shelf life for running backs is already short, but for a kid who bucked all the odds to become one of the best backs in football, this has to be a bitter pill to swallow. James Robinson will certainly garner lots of attention our upcoming draft, but his ability to be your go-to back in future seasons is iffy at best.
3) DE-OLB Aldon Smith: Fun facts #1 – Aldon Smith had 42 sacks his first 3 years in the NFL, finished 2nd in the DROY to Von Miller and passed Reggie White as the fastest player to reach 30 sacks. Fun Fact #2 – Smith spent 4+ seasons out of the NFL for issues related to domestic abuse and the league infractions. He returned last season, signing with the Dallas Cowboys (the island of misfit players) and returned their faith by garnering 5 sacks and for a while, resembling the Aldon Smith of old…and that’s when the “old” kicked in. In two months, Smith will be 32 years old, will be on a Seahawk roster where he will be part of a rotation, and is facing yet another legal battle over a battery charge in New Orleans. Shoot, even Jerry Jones kept Randy Gregory(?!) over Aldon Smith, which means….how much money does 5 sacks warrant, and can you count on ever seeing sack #6?
2) TE Robert Tonyan: The world is not filled with solid pass-catching tight ends, especially from the ranks of the undrafted. Of course, it helps being on a team where you have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time tossing the ball, and team management that would rather over-draft a quarterback in the first round with a Pro Bowler already on the roster rather than drafting a wide receiver in the first round (Fun Fact #3: the last time the Packers spent a first round pick on a wide receiver was 2002…3 years BEFORE Rodgers was drafted). It only makes sense that Devante Adams will be weapon #1, but as the season went on, you saw Rodgers look to Tonyan more and more as a reliable check down. Here, the questions lie more with the other guys than with Tonyan; where will Aaron Rodgers be playing in 2021 and who will be starting after him? BTW…prediction…the draft after the Packers get rid of Rodgers, guess what position they will draft in the first round? You all know the answer.
1) QB Jameis Winston: Confession is in order here; I am a Tampa Bay Buccaneer fan, was a season ticket holder for many years and have had Jameis on my Action PC roster on several teams. I have witnessed both the good and bad Jameis, and should have been on Zoloft to get through 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions (the last game….if Jameis doesn’t throw the pick-6 to Deion Jones in OT and “only” has 29 interceptions, I’m not convinced the Bucs would have went all-in on Brady and not re-signed Winston; that said, me and about 40,000 fans in the stands called that pick before they snapped the ball). So Jameis essentially provides nearly zip this coming season, outside of being a back-up, but the $64,000 question is, what is he worth in this year’s free agent market? You will find tons of opinions on the internet as to his chances of snagging the starting job in New Orleans, but here are my top 3 reasons why I think he can be very successful 1) For the “Slash” thing to work this coming season, the starter has to be the pocket passer, with trick plays coming off the bench; it really can’t work the other way 2) First four years as a starter, Jameis averaged about 1 interception for every 33.1 passes; first four years as a starter for Peyton Manning was an interception for every 27.4 passes. Jameis is still in his prime as a quarterback, and has the arm talent to succeed 3) Bruce Arians coaches QB’s to hold the ball longer and throw longer (riskier) passes, while Sean Payton coaches QB’s to play safe, take check-downs with fewer risks. I can already see guys shaking their heads, thinking I am a fool, but don’t be shocked if you see a 30-15-4000 season from Jameis, developing into a mid-range starter from some team; the question is, how much are you willing to spend to find out.
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