Week 16 Game of the Week

Minnesota Offense: The Viking offense is led by QB Matt Ryan, who doesn’t “wow” but does a good job getting the ball to WR’s Keenan Allen and Jamison Crowder, though there is also decent depth behind those 2 that includes TE Jonnu Smith; that said, the bread and butter of the Minnesota offense over the bulk of the season has been the 1-2 rushing attack of Kenyon Drake and Melvin Gordon III, who have 1700 yards between them. In Week 5, Ryan took to the air for 438 yards on 59 attempts to secure a last second field goal with time running out in OT, while their running attack managed a mere 70 yards in 5 quarters. The Bears host a very solid front 7 that makes it hard to run against, but Minnesota might find it hard to replicate that game from Ryan, given their average O-line trying to buy time from the likes of DE Myles Garrett and DL Quinnen Williams.

Minnesota Defense: Minnesota has their own stable of studs along the front 7, with DT Grady Jarrett leading a D-line with above average players that have solid guys behind them; in short, there is little chance of a drop-off from fatigue. While S’s Jimmie Ward and Kareem Jackson are the other guys who have “star” power, the Vikings are able to able to throw out a defense that boasts 7 or better ratings at every position when everyone is healthy, and that is from 4-3 to Quarter-D (LB Jamie Collins is questionable for this coming game, which might be the lone exception in a 4-3). That said, the D will be tested by the likes of Joe Burrow standing behind one of the better O-lines in the NFC, throwing to the likes of WR Deandre Hopkins and CeeDee Lamb; last game showed that shutting down the Bears attack might not be possible, but making those critical stops when the game is on the line will be essential to pulling off the season sweep.

Chicago Offense: The Bears are led by Joe Burrow, this past season’s man-crush for me, though he has had to share the load over the course of the season due to health issues. As previously stated, the top weapons for Burrow to throw to are WR’s Deandre Hopkins and CeeDee Lamb, though the running prowess of Ronald Jones II has been racking up yards at a ridiculous 6.3 YPC clip so far this season to go with Darrel Henderson Jr. who has almost 600 yards himself this season. Much like the Vikings, the Bears have quality depth at WR position in Tee Higgins and DJ Chark Jr. along with TE Dallas Goedert, giving Chicago their entire playbook to use against a stiff Minnesota defense. Jones managed to get 124 yards on the ground against the Vikings in Week 5, making up for what was a pedestrian effort by Burrow; a better performance by Burrow, to go along another solid running attack might be what is needed to get the win.

Chicago Defense: The Bears D-line is led by DE Myles Garrett and DL Quinnen Williams, who combine with ILB Devin White to provide a solid pass rush that put the relative statue of Matty Ice on the turf 4 times in Week 5. The very solid play of the front 7, including LB Deion Jones and OLB Harold Landry III does a lot to cover up what is a very average to below average CB corp, though S’s John Johnson III and Justin Simmons do for a very good safety duo. The key for the Bears is to keep the potent WR’s of the Vikings in check, at least enough by forcing them into passing by taking away the running game, and just hope for a timely stop or turnover. Week 5 saw the Vikings put up 438 yards through the air, so their best chance at winning this game will be continuing their dominance against the run and somehow grabbing a turnover or putting Ryan on the turf.

Final Analysis: I have had this game circled as GOTW since before the midway point of the season, and all signs led to this week as the battle for the division crown. There are a lot of stats one could throw out to make a case either way; the Bears have been crushing people since that Week 5 game, and currently have a 10 game winning streak. One could point to the 2 losses the Vikings have had so far, and that they were by a combined 4 points, with both of them by lesser teams in their own division, and that Minnesota actually has more top-end victories over the course of the season. At this point, both teams have set their rosters up to play this game for all the marbles, and should be another tight, physical game. The easy way to call this game would be to note that Chicago gets the home field advantage and so should be able to squeeze out the win, but I’m going with my gut and giving the slight edge to the Vikings; no particular reason I can point to, but the secondary of the Bears might be just a tad underwhelming in such a critical game. Minnesota 33 – Chicago 32