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| Cleveland Browns (12-5) @ Buffalo (14-3) |
| Some teams just seem to have other teams' number; while on paper, this appears to be a near even matchup, the two games this season have not been very close, with Buffalo winning by a combined 49-13. For the Browns to have any shot at winning this game, they are going to need to somehow get their running game going, as Cleveland has only managed 74 yards on the ground. While Cleveland did manage to win the turnover battle last game, they were unable to stop the potent rushing attack of Buffalo, who managed to run 31 more plays and hold the ball for an extra 16 minutes. Now, saying this is easier said than done; the question is, is there any reason to be optimistic that this can change in the post-season? Both teams are fairly healthy going into this game, and so really there is nothing on paper that suggests Cleveland having better success against the run. In short: Cleveland needs to run the ball to preserve their dominant front 7 over the long-haul of the game, and needs to stop the run and force Buffalo to pass and possibly get some 3-and-outs. DKS hates status quo, but I just don't see how Cleveland's luck changes, especially in Buffalo, where the weather can wreck havoc late in the year. I'm going to go with Buffalo for the 3-peat, with the Browns making it a bit closer this time around. Cleveland 17 - Buffalo 24 |
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| Indianapolis (11-6) @ Las Vegas (10-7) |
| This is the one wild card game where the road team has the better record, and that is no fluke. The Colts have had a season that brings back memories of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride, with Bob finding new and creative ways to lose games, particularly late. While picking Indianapolis to come from the near death to the Super Bowl is probably premature, this is a matchup that he should find favorable. While the Raiders have a top-notch defense, their skill position players are significantly fatigued; they do get a boost in the post-season, but even with that boost, they are still going to have a heckuva time putting out a meaningful rushing attack. Also, because of usage, it will be hard for anyone other than Mills to be the starting QB, and while David Carr is probably not getting a Pro Bowl bid anytime soon, he is the better QB in this matchup. In short, Chris is going to have a hard time scoring in this game, and while his defense can matchup up with almost everybody, the Colts should be able to hang enough points to score that ever-rare road team win in the wild card round. Indianapolis 23 - Las Vegas 21 |
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| New York (N) (10-7) @ Los Angeles (N) (13-4) |
| The Giants get the final playoff spot by virtue of their win over Detroit during the season, but they enter the playoffs very formidable and hardly a pushover. Most of both rosters showcase talent on both sides of the ball, and both teams have the ability to score and to stop the other team enough to secure a win. So why did the Rams win 3 more games than the Giants? Two reasons mainly; one, the NFC East had to run the gauntlet that was the AFC East, while the NFC West faced the AFC Central....the other is that Rams trot out the GOAT, while the Giants rely on Baker Mayfield. Don't get me wrong, I think there is still plenty of skin left in Baker's game, but you can also count on Baker playing...well, like Baker...just too many times during the season. The long and short of this game is this; if Baker plays up to Brady, then the Giants can pull off the upset. In the first game during Week 10 against the Eagles, Baker threw 1 TD and 2 ints for a 56.6 passer rating and the Giants lost by 26. In the re-match, Baker threw 1 TD, no INT's, had a 111.3 QBR, and the Eagles had to score a TD with 18 seconds left to secure the win. Baker doesn't have to throw for 300 yards and 4 TD's for the Giants to win; merely play well enough to not be a liability. So...who to pick? I am going with Rams since they have Brady, but wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if the Giants found a way to pull off the upset on the road. New York (N) 24 - Los Angeles (N) 28 |
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| Arizona (12-5) @ Dallas (12-5) |
| This is a rematch from just last week, where both the Cardinals and the Cowboys rested some guys, but the Cowboys pulled away in the 4th quarter in their come-from-behind win. So, what was the secret recipe for the Dallas win? In short, just like the Giants, the Cardinals host Ryan Tannehill at QB, who is probably only has bragging rights over Davis Mills in the playoffs this year. The Cardinals lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game, and there is simply no way that Arizona can ever hope to win in Dallas with that same lop-sided result. Kirk Cousins was essentially playing pitch-and-catch with Mark Andrews, so if both QB's play the way the did last week, Dallas will be moving on. Can Arizona pull off the upset? Yeah, but Cousins has to play a bit worse, Tannehill has to play a bit better, and Arizona has to keep the turnover battle close to even. In short, I have to give the nod to Dallas since the Cowboys did just win, but it should also be a heckuva rematch. Arizona 27 - Dallas 31 |
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