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Last season, the AFC Central may have had the worst overall record as a whole in the PAFL, yet was very competitive until the last couple weeks of the season. All the teams boast better rosters this season, and should boost the level of play which may end up on a couple teams here making it to the playoffs. Here is the way I see it ending up, for whatever it is worth...
1) Indianapolis Colts
Why will the Colts win the Central?
Indy has a solid team from top to bottom, starting with the ever underrated Derek Carr at QB, RB Zeke Elliott, and a couple of solid WR's in Brandin Cooks and Marvin Jones, all behind a solid O-line, particularly at the interior. On defense, they boast a good D, nothing earth-shattering, but solid from top to bottom, that will be able to hold its own most games during the season. The spots they won't be putting out a 7 or better are spots where you can hide it a bit, and their depth/durability should help them come mid-season
How could they finish out of the playoffs?
The other teams in their division are better too, so they won't be able to pad their win total as much this season in-division. Also, their defense, while solid, won't probably keep up with some of the powerhouses they will face, and will need to rely keeping their foot on the peddle offensively. The first 2 games in their schedule are brutal in what I think will be the top SB contenders in Chicago and Las Vegas, and will need to probably make up some games in the 2nd half of their schedule to make up what could be a slower than expected start.
Verdict
There are 3 teams that could legitimately win this division, and iMO, Indy is probably the most well-rounded and therefore stands the best chance of finishing on top. They will need to take care of business in their division, but I suspect they will get the 10-12 wins needed to come out on top.
2) Tennessee Titans
Why will the Titans pull off the division title?
Many of the same reasons I gave for Indy above apply to the Titans; they are, for the most part, solid in most areas, though just a step behind Indy at most positions, though Tennessee has an excellent secondary, which combined with their superior pass rush in OLB's Robert Quinn and Matt Judon, along with DE/OLB Jaelan Phillips, should be able to stop enough drives to keep them in most games.
Why the Titans might finish with a less than .500 record?
For one, their early schedule is brutal, with solid playoff contenders among their first 4 games; it will be crucial they do no worse than split with the Colts and Bengals, or they could be buried very early on. Tennessee will need to do what they can to come out of their first 6 games with a 3-3 record to truly contend for the division; 1-5 or 0-6 and they will be battling with the Steelers to stay out of the basement. Also, the elephant in the room is at QB; can Mark massage enough out of Winston and Heinicke to put enough points on the board to win most games.
Verdict
Here is where coaching will come into play; will the Titans manage to generate enough offense and force teams to throw, where they appear able to hold their own, or will they try to win low-scoring games where teams might be able to run on them? I just feel like the Colts have a bit better team where it needs to be better, but that secondary for the Titans should be able to keep them in it until the end.
3) Cincinnati Bengals
Why the Bengals could win the division?
Before Nino took over the Bengals, I actually had Cincinnati and Indy very close in the Central, with the Titans finishing 3rd, but then Nino has decided to do a mini-rebuild...not necessarily a bad call, but one that will take away some of the weapons. That said, Nino is an excellent coach, and they still possess enough offensive weapons and also have a better than average defense that will keep them in most games. Also, the schedule outside the division is considerably easier than it is for the top two teams in the division, so those division games will be crucial; win those, and the Bengals could pull off the worst-to-first trick.
Why they might finish even last in the division?
There probably are no sacred cows on the Bengal roster, so we may be looking at this team this time next month and seeing alot more draft picks and a lot less talent. TE Zach Ertz was a major skill position player they traded away, and while they still have talent at TE, though they have a very talented O-line and are solid at WR. In short, if there are no major roster moves by the Bengals before January 1, they will most likely taking advantage of their last place schedule and competing for the division; if they make a couple of moves, it may move the roster towards the cellar once again.
Verdict
I am in several leagues with Nino, and he is an excellent coach/GM, who doesn't just think in the short-term, so I expect this team will continue to improve as it had during previous ownership. Cincinnati is the true "wildcard" team (pun intended) both in the division and in the league, and I suspect their fingerprints will be on whoever is holding up the SB trophy at the end of the year.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
Why the Steelers will surprise some people this coming year?
Pete is a veteran coach and will have the final days of Ben Roethlisberger feeding some talented skill guys, whether it be at RB, where Najee Harris will contribute both on the ground and catching the ball, or at WR/TE, where there are no less than 5 legitimate guys who can catch the ball. Though the O-line needs a bit of tooling, it should be good enough to allow the offense score enough points to win its share of games.
Why the Steelers will finish at the back of the pack?
Ben is not very evasive, and the weaknesses of the O-line will lead to more sacks, which can kill drives. Also, outside of Vita Vea, there is no star power on defense, and it should be possible to score on them, making alot of games that much more difficult. For Pittsburgh to move out of the basement, it will be necessary to take advantage of a somewhat easier schedule and beating the teams in their division...something that might not be in the cards this season.
Verdict
Make no bones about it; this is a more talented Steelers team than was fielded last season. Also, it is important to note that Pete plays hard each and every game he coaches, so other teams can't think about marking any game as a win before it starts. But Pittsburgh simple lacks the manpower at present to finish ahead of the other teams in their division, and will be looking at getting their next star QB next season.
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