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Last year's surprise team was the Las Vegas Raiders, who managed to win the division behind Mitch Trubisky. This season, they will be looking to repeat behind Davis Mills, but should be assisted by some rebuilding teams. That said, here's how I see it playing out...
1) Las Vegas Raiders
Why they will win the West and contend for the Super Bowl?
From top to bottom, the Raiders may boast one of the most talented rosters from top to bottom. They will utilize a RB-by-committee that all have good YPC, 4 pass catchers with decent durability and have 60+ catches to their credit, along with depth behind those 4 at both WR and TE. Defensively, their back 7 is one of the best in the league, and should be able to play tough against the better passing teams in the league.
What may hold them back against the best teams in the AFC?
Las Vegas has two main weaknesses to speak of; they have a very ordinary D-line, and also are very pedestrian at QB. Last year, this was the flaw that Jeff used in picking the Raiders to finish in the middle of the pack of the West, but Chris found ways to make Trubisky play better than his numbers said he should, and that could very conceivably happen here as well. That said, winning the West, and beating the Browns and Jags are different stories all together, so while I don't see the Raiders finishing out of first this season, they may have challenges in certain games.
Verdict
I think this version of the Raiders is better than last years, at least on paper, and should be among the best teams in the AFC. Davis Mills is a below average starter, and his Y/A concern me, along with his low number of attempts, but given how the division is set up, Chris should be able to slow the game down, conserve attempts, and be able to win enough games to win the division.
2) Denver Broncos
How could the Broncos make it tough for the Raiders?
To begin with, Howard (RIP) built an offensive juggernaut in Denver last year that carries over this year as well. They have the top QB in the league in Josh Allen, one of the best RB's in Nick Chubb, and 7 guys who had over 50 catches last season, all behind an O-line that is decent. They finished among the top-3 in scoring in the PAFL last year, and last time I checked, if you scored more than the team you are playing, you win.
Why the Broncos will finish behind the Raiders?
Just as their strengths last season are their strengths this season, it remains said this season as well; the Broncos D is, at best, average, particularly in the secondary. They will be able to generate pressure behind Brian Burns and Chris Wormley, and ILB Lavonte David is still one of the best LB's in the league, but teams will be looking to throw to keep up with Denver, and while Denver should be able to outscore alot of teams, they won't be able to do that every game.
Verdict
Man, there is alot of talent at the skill positions in Denver that simply won't come to fruition during this season; you just can't start 5 WR's, 2 TE's and a power back at the same time. That said, the depth they have will be very handy as the season goes along, and they are able to replace one banged up guy for another stud. When it came time for the playoffs, Denver went to the Super Bowl behind that stellar offense and a defense that turned up at just the right times, and it wouldn't be a shock to see it happen again. And if it does happen, whoever owns this team at that time will have a very bright star helping guide the way.
3) San Francisco 49ers
Why will they finish middle of the pack?
First off, Todd is an excellent coach, and the 49ers boast some nice pieces on both sides of the ball. QB Mac Jones is solid and young, and they have some weapons in the passing game that fit well behind a stellar O-line; in short, Jones' lack of mobility shouldn't be an issue with Wirfs and Slater defending him for years to come. Also, they are in a division where rebuilding is the word of the day, and divisional wins count when it comes to sneaking into the playoffs.
Why they won't finish at the top of the division?
San Francisco simply doesn't have the talent at this point; while Jamal Williams already has more yards this season as he did in all of last year, that won't help this coming PAFL season, and the talent at the skill positions just doesn't match up with the top teams in this division. While San Fran boasts the top S duo in Kevin Byard and Micah Hyde, their corners are lacking both top-end talent and durability/depth, so going against Denver may not be so pretty.
Verdict
Last year, San Francisco was in the playoff race all season, taking advantage of a division schedule that allowed them to capture some games and stellar coaching. That should probably come into play this season, as they will most likely be favored against Seattle and KC, but underdogs against the Raiders and Broncos. By the end of the season, the 49ers will most likely be hanging around .500, and looking to snag the last playoff spot.
4) Kansas City Chiefs
Why they will finish out of the basement?
This is a tough call between Seattle and KC; my main reason would be there are just enough pieces in Kansas City to give them a bit of an edge. WR Jamar Chase is a legit #1 WR and TE Pat Freirmuth is a good young TE, and they have some pieces in the front 7 on defense that should make them able to compete against the lesser offenses in the league
Why they could finish last in the West?
Kansas City probably has the worst secondary in the league; that isn't meant to be cruel, but there really is no way to sugarcoat it. Besides being low-rated, they also appear to have durability issues, so there will be games where it could get really ugly. Don't get me wrong, Paul has done a good job acquiring talent in the draft, and it will pay dividends down the road, just not this year.
Verdict
I seriously had a very tough time deciding between the Chiefs and the Seahawks, and I may very well be wrong, but the young talent they have may be able to get them an extra win over Seattle. That said, Seattle and Kansas City will be on the watch list for 1st overall draft pick, and it may come down to the end of the season to see who it might be.
5) Seattle Seahawks
Why will they finish out of the basement in the West?
Again, this is a tough call, but the Seahawks get to play the Chiefs twice this season...if one of them sweep the other, that will probably decide it. Seattle does boast a better secondary, though not a great amount of depth, but definitely better than what KC has. They also have a legit pass-rusher in Cam Jordan to go with the rest of their somewhat shaky D-line, and their O-line is just a notch under average.
Why will they finish behind Kansas City?
Outside of Austin Ekeler, there really isn't a weapon that makes you fear them, and most teams will focus on him since QB Sam Darnold doesn't redefine the position. While Kadarius Toney may end up a suitable WR someday, being a #1 just doesn't pass muster.
Verdict
I literally am torn on who will finish above the other (Seattle and Kansas City), and it really boiled down to this; can Tua make enough plays with Chase and Friermuth to overcome their lack of secondary? I think both of these teams will be contenders for top pick, and while both teams are getting better, and Jamey is an established quality coach, I think they may succeed in getting their next franchise QB in the upcoming draft.
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