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Last year, the AFC East proved to be the toughest division in the PAFL, and looks to be following the same path again this year, though last place is by a rebuilding that appears to be setting up for a 5 dog slugfest next season. That said, any of the top 4 teams could make a claim for the AFC crown, but here are my thoughts as to how it might shake out.
1) Cleveland Browns
Why the Browns could capture the division crown and compete for a championship?
Cleveland simply has the best front 7 in the PAFL on the defensive side of the ball, boasting 3 10 or 10+ rated defenders in Aaron Donald, Cam Heyward and Devondre Campbell, along with 9 rated Bobby Wagner; there is not a 6 to be had anywhere on that front, and couple that with a more than sufficient secondary, and most teams will have their work cut out for them. On offense, a more than capable Matthew Stafford has very good RB's to hand off to, and a couple of top-notch WR's to catch the ball and work behind a good (not great) offensive line.
Why could the Browns fall short?
First off, I just don't see a very low floor with the Browns, as their defense is just too good. They don't have those WR's who tend to stretch the field, and they appear to be built for long time-consuming drives that wear teams out. Teams that pass the ball well, and score touchdowns will stand a chance by getting critical stops along the way and forcing the Browns into settling for FG's. Is that a recipe a team can follow and possibly win...yeah. But it's going to take a game or two like that, along with those games that either Thielen or Mixon are out for Cleveland to finish out of first.
Verdict
Cleveland has a damn good team, and should be a solid contender this season to win both the division and the league. The algorithm for the game has tended to stamp down good defenses in recent years, but I can't see teams putting up many points on the Browns, and Stafford and company should be able to score enough to give Stan all he needs most weeks.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars
Why can they repeat as division champs?
Make no bones about it; this team is not near as good on paper as last years was, when they were rolling teams every week. This year, Shaun will have to coach his way to a championship, though having Justin Herbert as your starting QB certain aids the play-calling. They have 3 legitimate targets in WR Chris Godwin, Hollywood Brown and TE George Kittle, and a couple guys behind them that aren't slouches either. When RB Elijah Mitchell is healthy, he should be a very dangerous back to go with Darrell Williams, and their defense is strong in the secondary and is ok in the front 7. Scoring should not be a problem, and they are built to make enough stops to win games, just not as suffocating as last year.
Why they could miss the playoffs?
Outside of possibly New Orleans (more on them in a bit), I just don't see a laydown in their schedule, and they will have to maneuver through some injury/durability issues through the season; it will depend on who they are playing, and how many come at the same time, as to how it will affect their season. The Jags don't appear as dominant in the division as last season, and if the wrong guys are out, Jacksonville has a brutal stretch of games to finish the season.
Verdict
In this division, Jacksonville appears to be neck and neck with the team I have directly ahead of them, and the next two teams could just as easily slide up, so it truly is anybody's division to win. That said, if I had to bet money, I think Jacksonville can score enough points to take the division against alot of teams...just not enough against Cleveland.
3) Miami Dolphins
Why they could sneak into the top two?
The Dolphins have not real weaknesses per se; they have a slightly better than average QB in Jimmy Garoppolo, with decent RB's and a top 5 WR in Tyreek Hill, all behind a good O-line. They also have a good front 7, led by Demario Davis, and a solid secondary. Miami also benefits from a last-place schedule, so they can massage durability issues a bit better than the teams listed above them.
Why they could not make the playoffs?
I chose my word carefully when reviewing the Dolphins...in most phases, they are good, but not great. Outside of Tyreek, they will have issues that may hold them back; their best RB has a solid number of carries, just not a great YPC. Ridley will be limited this season before his season-long suspension next year, and there are no WR's after Hill who make teams shudder. While they certainly have a very good O-line and their defense is certainly better than average, this is the wrong division to be merely good.
Verdict
I feel bad in that, in most divisions, the Miami Dolphins would be top contenders, and they most certainly won't be blown out of many games, but that said, they may have some matchup issues against the top two teams that will ultimately hold them back. Their 5th place schedule gives them a game or two, but the division games will still decide the race.
4) Buffalo Bills
Why they could make a play at the top of the division?
Buffalo has the leagues best running QB, to go with two more than capable RB's in Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter behind a very good O-line that should control the ball most games, and should be able to put out 2 solid WR's to help keep teams somewhat honest in the passing game. The Bills also bring what is possibly the 2nd best defense in the division, who should be able to keep most teams contained, boasting 2 shutdown corners.
So why do I have them finishing 4th?
In today's NFL, you have to be able to pass the ball, and that is where Buffalo falls short; don't get me wrong, there will be plenty of games where they have the ball for 40 minutes and win 24-10, but there will also be more than a few games where they will need to put up points and they will have a challenge. Also, there will be a stretch of games where Jackson will be out, and that won't help the offense, along with the fact that Buffalo plays a bit tougher schedule.
Verdict
Buffalo will keep teams at bay most games, and their ability to run the ball will allow them to win more games than they lose. That said, there will be enough games where the lack of a passing game will hold them back, at least enough in this division
5) New Orleans Saints
Why will they make some games interesting?
The Saints have a good QB in Kyler Murray, and will be able to move the ball in enough games that they won't be last, boasting Michael Gallup and Corey Davis for at least part of the year. Their lines boast average players, they have good young talent that should show up and surprise some teams along the way.
Why will they finish last in the division?
Don won't mind me saying this, but this is all by design; he had an incredible draft, has young guys who are either ascending or are suffering from injuries last year, or both. Next season, this roster won't look anything like it does now, and he will also have Miami's last place schedule.
Verdict
They say the darkest manure grows the prettiest flowers, and Don is aiming for a rich garden next season. While the Saints don't have the worst team in the league, they are in the toughest division, so the #1 overall pick is in play for them. This time next season, it is entirely probable that we will be looking again at a 5 team horserace for the division yet again
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