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Time to go out and find your favorite tasty beverage (assuming they are still in supply), bust out some hot wings and get with the friends and family to watch the annual big game (all safety measures in place, yada yada yada). This is one of the more interesting matchups we've seen in awhile, so here are my thoughts on what we have to look forward to this Valentine's Day eve (that's a reminder guys!).
1) For all intents and purposes, this should be the Rams coronation
Let's just put it out there; for the Rams, this isn't the beginning of a dynasty, but a one-time big shot to finally getting that silver trophy in their hands. I doubt you see OBJ or Von Miller back in Rams gear next year, and all the first round draft picks that never were made is going to cascade into cap hell starting as soon as next year. But for now, the Rams on paper have the most talent in the league, and that counts for alot in a winner-take-all game like this. Matthew Stafford deals with pressure better than Jared Goff did, and the Rams have perhaps the greatest defensive lineman in the history of the game in Aaron Donald, which leads to the next point.
2) Good defenses usually stop good offenses in Super Bowls
You just don't see as many ticky-tack fouls called in Super Bowls as you do throughout the season (don't give me that Packer fan...Kevin King was acting out a scene from Fifty Shades of Grey against Tyler Johnson last year in the NFC championship game). Defenses tighten, and if there was one flaw in Burrow's game that you could point out, it is that he tends to hold on to the ball too long sometimes, waiting for plays to develop. If he does that in this game, he will be able to tell what Donald had for dinner, as Donald will be in his face early and often. With all the weapons the Rams have on the defensive line, it means that Aaron Donald will be able to beat his usual double-team and the Bengals might match the 9 sack total they allowed against Tennessee in the divisional round...which leads to the next point.
3) Joe Burrow is the next big thing
You may have noticed my man-crush over Joe Burrow the last few weeks, and it has nothing to do with his McCauley Caulkin good looks (and the real McCauley Caulkin really doesn't look all that good these days). Watching that divisional round game against the Titans, it made me think back to the first Sunday night game in Mitch Trubisky's 2nd season against the Packers, where, after taking a lead against the Packers early, the Green Bay pass rush started to get to Trubisky and, by the end of the game, they just got close to him one play and Trubisky went down in a fetal position. It's where a QB's eyes go after being sacked that tells you whether a guy is destined to do great things...do they start looking at the pass rush or do they look further downfield. Burrow is already a veteran of sliding out of the pocket and continue looking downfield. While the Titans don't have Aaron Donald, they do have Jeffrey Simmons, who is already in the conversation as a top 5 DT in the league. Simmons beat his guy like a rented mule the entire game, and while he got his 3 sacks in that game, Burrow never got flustered. Losing 8 yards in a sack is certainly easier to take when you have the likes of JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and CJ Uzomah to throw to...which leads to the next point
4) The Rams have not faced a team as talented offensively as the Bengals so far in the playoffs
While much of the conversation seems to focus on how the Bengals offensive line can hold up, it might be worth noting that the Bengals present a myriad of problems to the Rams as well. Assuming the Rams haven't sacked Burrow, the Bengals possess one of the most dangerous rookie receivers to come along in awhile, and that IS taking into account Justin Jefferson. I'm not convinced that the Rams can afford to keep Chase at bay by just blanketing him with Jalen Ramsey; if Mike Evans can burn Ramsey deep, Chase could put up 200 yards against him. And if they decide to double Chase, that leaves Tee Higgins in the slot, who can burn you 12 yards a catch. If that isn't enough, one of the most underrated TE's in the game in CJ Uzomah has proven to be a reliable target, and Tyler Boyd might be the most talented 3rd WR in the game. Let's also not remember that Burrow is mobile enough to get tough first downs on his own, if the Rams decide to go deep with all those receiving threats. While taking 9 sacks is usually the kiss of death to a team, when you have guys that can stretch a defense, it's alot easier to make those yards up.
5) So how do I think this game will end up?
Stafford has waited his entire life for this game; the only thing if the Rams win is that it would help perpetuate the myth that it was only the pitiful Lions front office that held the Lions back. Don't get me wrong, I don't think that Detroit is a model franchise, but Stafford did have Megatron most of his career, and I do seem to recall that the Lions defense had Suh and Fairley at one point, so it's not like Stafford was devoid of all talent. It will also help that the Rams have the game's best WR in Cooper Kupp, a revitalized OBJ, a young improving WR in Van Jefferson and their own underrated TE in Tyler Higbee. My guess is that the Rams will start the game strong and will play on the nerves of the young Bengals to take the early lead. But, I don't think the Bengals will lay down, and Burrow will begin to figure out the weak points in the armor. For the Rams to win, I think they need to bury the Bengals; put their foot on their throats and not let up even a little bit. But that is not in Stafford's DNA, and that is what I think will be the doom for the Rams. If the game is at all close in the 4th quarter, I think the Bengals sideline looks at Burrows and is totally confident he can win, while the Rams sideline will be filled with nagging doubts from the ghosts of Stafford's past. In what will be a shocker to the Vegas betting crowd, I am predicting the upset with the Bengals winning 38-35, propelled by the Bengals savant of a rookie kicker. We'll see.....
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