THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

8:20 PM Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)

Bengals Need Big W in Baltimore

   As has been stated before, the Cincinnati Bengals have a long history of being a second-half team. If that trait is going to continue this season, they need to pull off a huge win in Baltimore versus a powerful hosting Ravens' team. They pulled out a hard fought, 12-0, win over the Raiders last week, but the offense sputtered all game long as K Evan McPherson would boot 4 field goals to account for all of the scoring. Baltimore dispatched the Denver Broncos, 28-17, with QB Lamar Jackson throwing for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. The win enabled the Ravens to remain within 1 game of Jacksonville for the top seed in the AFC.

  Both clubs score about the same amount of points per game, but the Ravens have a huge edge on defense where they have been allowing teams to score only 18.89 PPG compared to Cinci's 22.89 PPG. In addition, Baltimore converts on third down at a 45% clip, whereas the Bengals come in with a 38% rate. One other factor in Baltimore's favor is in red zone efficiency with the Ravens holding a 48% to 32% advantage.

   Final analysis: This could be a close game and often is between these two clubs. However, the Ravens have the superior talent and are playing much more consistent ball.  Baltimore 25-20. 

9:30 AM New York Giants (5-4) vs Carolina Panthers (4-5)

Munich, Germany Game

Teams in Europe for Critical Game

   The New York Giants and Carolina Panthers will play in Germany for, what is, a huge game for both organizations. The Giants will probably not win the NFC East, but they are right in the middle of a nest of teams vying for the playoffs, and the Panthers just happen to be one of those teams in the nest. Big Blue has won three of its last four games, while Carolina has been up and down all season long and come in having gone 2-2 over their last four outings.

   New York has been one of the league's toughest teams to score upon. They have allowed only 137 poins in their nine games (15.22 PPG) which is tops in football! They have surrendered just 601 yards on the ground (66.78 YPG) and rank among the league leaders with 61 team sacks. Those type numbers do not bode well for a Panther team that ranks 20th in scoring (21.3 PPG) and who's top rusher (Jonathon Brooks) comes in averaging less than 4 YPC.

   Final Analysis: Big game for both clubs, but the Giants are playing well and defense travels. Feel the Panthers will not be able to run the ball and then get into predictable passing downs where the G-Men's pass rush can do damage. New York 24-16.   

 1:00 PM New England Patriots (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

Pats trying to Hang in. Bears' Power Surge Has NFC North Taking Notice

  The New England Patriots have not been able to get into a groove much of the season. Now, as it seems the Dolphins might be getting their act together under HC Mike Kleinknecht, they find themselves fighting for their playoff lives. Meanwhile, the Bears had, by far, their best game of their year as they rolled up 464 yards of offense in their convincing, 41-19, win over the Arizona Cardinals and could become a real factor in the NFC North going forward.

   The Drake Maye factor continued last week as the Patriots lost, 31-27, to the Tennessee Titans. Maye, the rookie QB out of North Carolina, threw an interception in the defeat and the Pats have now gone 1-5 in games in which he has thrown a pick and 3-0 when he has not! The Bears are a developing team with their own rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams, throwing a season high 3 TD passes last week, while also being sacked just two times all game! In a trend of sorts, Chicago has gone 3-0 in each game where Williams has compiled a 100+ QBR and 0-5 when he has not cleared that threshold!

   Final Analysis: How the two young QBs perform, obviously, has an impact upon the success or failure of their respective clubs. Do feel Chicago might be moving in the right direction. Chicago 25-18.

1:00 PM Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (3-6)

Pair of 3-6 Teams Try to Salvage Season

       At 3-6, neither team can realistically lose this game and have a viable shot at the playoffs. even the winner will still be facing long odds, but at least still have a route to the post-season party. Buffalo's offense stalled last week as QB Josh Allen would be sacked 11 times and picked off twice by a rejuvenated Dolphins' defense. The Bills' defense would be riddled as well with Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa connecting for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns and HB De'Von Achane exploding for 132 yards and 2 more touchdowns. Indianapolis got their third win in four games with a, 28-14, victory over the Minnesota Vikings. The game was an ugly affair with Colt QB Anthony Richardson and Minnesota signal caller Sam Darnold each throwing 3 interceptions. Richardson, though, would still find the endzone 4 times while throwing for 303 yards.

   Final Analysis: Both teams tend to go as their quarterbacks go. The Bills can be scary when they can get pass protection for Allen. They have gone 3-1 in games where he has been sacked 5 or fewer times in a game. Indy has 38 sacks a team, which is not a tremendous amount. Could be a good one.  Indianapolis 28-24.

1:00 PM Denver Broncos (2-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-4)

Broncos Tamed?  Chiefs Still Seeking Their Mojo

     Denver has endured a season without leadership and it has cost them big time. The Chiefs just have not been able to find that perfect mix between the running of HB Isiah Pacheco and the passing of QB Patrick Mahomes that had become the hallmark of Kansas City football over the past few seasons. The lack of offensive potency has allowed opposing teams to play a more controlled style of ball and not have to go to the air in an effort to hang in their with the KC attack. That, then, has led a drastic reduction in sacks with the normally prolific numbers tempered quite a bit.

   Final Analysis: This could be the perfect game for the Chiefs to get their act figured out. They looked like they had it going just a couple of weeks ago, but then were shut down by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week with Mahomes getting sacked 14 times, Pacheco rushing for only 10 yards, and the pass rush garnering a mere 2 sacks.  Kansas City 30-14.

1:00 PM Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (6-3)

Saints Showing Signs of Championship Form Returning. Falc-ns Missing O?

   The Saints are looking more and more like the team that won the PFL title two seasons ago, but the play of Derek Carr needs to improve if the team hopes to get all the way back to that form. The Falcons made some moves to generate a new look offense, but the results have not been there with the club averaging just 12.75 PPG over its last four contests.

   New Orleans has turned to its grinding running game and the legs of HB Alvin Kamara. The 7 year veteran recorded his thrid consecutive 100+ rushing game in last week's narrow, 20-15, win over the Panthers. Kamara ran for season highs in attempts (30) and yards (176) as well as a season long run of 38 yards. However, QB Derek Carr has not come along for the ride yet and suffered through another poor outing. He would toss two more picks and end with a season low 132 yards and 44 QBR. He has now thrown 10 interceptions over his prior 5 games and owns a lowly 88.6 QBR on the season.

   Atlanta was stopped by the Dallas Cowboys last week, 27-7, as newly acquired QB Malik Willis struggled and HB Bijan Robinson again could not get going, finishing with 33 yards on 10 carries. Only three receivers, Tyquan Thornton, TE Kyle Pitts, and WR Rondale Moore have double digit receptions on the year for Atlanta.

   Final Analysis: The Falcons have plenty of weapons to pressure defenses, but have not been able to get untracked. The Saints have the running game part of their formula going, but Carr has been a mess. This could become a low scoring grinder type game. New Orleans 20-16.

1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)

Hopefuls Battle in Florida

   San Francisco is coming off a much needed bye week with hopes of getting back in the winning saddle. After starting their season 5-0, the Niners have stumbled into a three game losing skid and fallen out of first place in the NFC West. The biggest dilemma, by far, has been the sudden collapse of the offensive line as QB Brock Purdy has become a sitting duck for opposing pass rushers. After getting dropped 27 times over his initial five games, Purdy has been smashed some 43 times during the three game tailspin! Tampa Bay ended a 2-game slide with a major win over the Kansas City Chiefs, 26-14, as the defense pounded KC QB Patrick Mahomes for 14 sacks and stuffed their running game for a mere 12 yards!

   San Fran started getting into trouble when they began to lean too much on the passing game. Purdy has thrown the ball 40+ times in each of his last four games, while top back Christian McCaffrey has seen his rushing attempts plummet dramatically. The stud back has run 5,5, and 15 times during the skid (8.33 attempts per game) for 105 yards (35 YPG). He ran the ball 76 times for 243 yards in the first five games of the year (15.2 carries per game and 85.6 YPG).

   Final Analysis: A return to some semblance of offensive balance would do the Niners good. If they can mix in a healthy dose of McCaffrey, then the passing game should follow right along. That, of course, remains to be seen. If the recent passing tactics continue, it is probable the sacks will as well. Tampa Bay 27-22.

1:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) at Washington Commanders (1-8)

Steelers' #1 D Hopes Bye Week Wakes Up the O. DC Denizens and Rook QB Daniels Need Points

    When your team is ranked 28th in offense and 31st in running the ball, the last thing you need your rookie QB to face is the league's top rated defense. But that is precisely the challenge Washington rook Jayden Daniels is confronted with this week. Washington is averaging 17.7 PPG and would have little chance for success this week if not for the fact the Pittsburgh offense has all types of problems of its own. The Steelers are only averaging 18 PPG and have just 4 rushing touchdowns on the season! Still, a major stat in favor of the Steelers is the 60 sacks Daniels has absorbed compared to the 33 the Pittsburgh QBs have experienced.

   Final Analysis: The fact neither team scores alot should lead to a tight game here. Daniels has thrown just 3 picks all year long giving the Commanders a +3 TO margin. Pittsburgh has a -2 margin and, in close games like this one, a key turnover or sack can determine the outcome. So, this one should be decided by Washington sacks or Steeler turnovers.  Pittsburgh 20-18.

1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings (3-4-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-1)

Vikes Clinging to Packers' Belt. Jags Continue to Prove Worthy of Their Top Billing

   The Minnesota Vikings are right in the NFC North divisional mix, and remain on the heels of the front running Green Bay Packers, despite losing their past two games as their offense has suddenly cooled off. Now, though, they travel to Florida to contend with, who many view as, the best team in the PFL: The Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags just keep rolling along and are the only team in the league averaging over 30 PPG (32.3 PPG). That number is even more impressive when one considers that the second highest scoring team in the league is the Kansas City Chiefs and they are averaging some 5.7 points less (26.6 PPG) than the Jags are! The J-ville defense has been excellent as well entering this match with a league best 82 sacks. About the only down spot on the Jaguars' resume is a 27% red zone efficiency rating.

   Minnesota QB Sam Darnold has a 98 QBR with just 8 touchdown passes compared to 5 interceptions. Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence leads the PFL in QBR (145.3), touchdown passes (25), yards per attempt (12.3), and has tossed a lone pick all year long! The disparity is so large as to make this matchup having Jacksonville as a prohibitive favorite. Not only is Lawrence having an amazing season, but so is the running game. Travis Etienne has been lost for a few games, but that has done nothing to slow down the Jag's running game which is #1 in the league averaging 120.1 YPG. If the Vikings could shorten the game with a solid running game of their own, they might have a shot, but the reality is the Vikes rank 28th in rushing averaging just 66.1 YPG.

   Final Analysis: This has blowout written all over it, but stranger things have occurred in PFL history. Minny looks like they just do not have enough to hang in this one unless Lawrence suddenly has an off game. Jacksonville 32-15.

4:05 PM  Tennessee Titans (5-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-7)

Titans Hanging Tough in AFC South. Chargers Woes Mount

   The Tennessee Titans always seem to be a sticky customer in the PFL and, even though they do not have a full time coaching staff, they are just as sticky as ever this season as well. The Chargers are working their way through an agonizing campaign with QB Justin Herbert simply not living up to expectations. Herbert has tossed a league worst 16 interceptions (5 more than New Orleans' QB Derek Carr) and his 68 QBR is the lowest in football! Tennessee's Will Levis has actually been pretty good with a 104.2 QBR and 17 touchdowns while averaging 307.5 YPG passing, which ranks 4th in the PFL!

   Final Analysis: The Bolts are a mess and cannot get going unless Herbert plays significantly better. The Titans just keep plugging along under the radar. Tennessee 27-15.

GAME OF THE WEEK

4:25 PM Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Dallas Cowboys (5-3)

NFC Dominance on the Line in Big D

    There are few rivalries as intense as the Philly-Dallas battles. This one has, as it often does, serious divisional and playoff ramifications. The Eagles looked like the top team in the NFC (and still might be) until they got ripped to shreds by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, 43-24, last week. Dallas, meanwhile, has been slowly getting better and comes in on a four game winning streak. They have done it with an improving running game led by HB Rico Dowdle and some fine play out of QB Dak Prescott. Prescott has thrown 9 TD passes during the win streak and has not thrown a pick in any of his last three games. The 9 touchdowns represent quite a turnaround when taking into consideration he had just 1 touchdown over his first four games of the year!

   Philly is a very good team. Their main issue has been the inability to get top back, Saquon Barkley, going. He has not rushed for more than 72 yards in any game this year and was stuffed for 39 yards on just 9 carries by the Jacksonville defense last week. Their traditionally rugged defense comes in 25th ranked in the PFL allowing 318 YPG and, although they are scoring 25.9 PPG, the team has a -2 in turnover margin.

   Dallas is a +4 in turnover margin, but is averaging only 17.8 PPG. That number has to be taken with a grain of salt, however, as the Pokes have been chugging along at a 27.75 PPG rate during their four game run! They have not been good at stopping the run, ceding 108.9 YPG, which could open the door for Barkely to finally get rolling.The Cowboys have been very good at protecting Prescott having allowed just 30 sacks on the season. That number is the second fewest in the NFC trailing only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 25.

   Third down is not where the Cowboys want to live. They are dead last in the league converting at a dismal 29% so early down success is a must. They are also 26th in red zone efficiency (30%) compared to the Eagles' 48% rate which is tied for 6th best in football. 

   Edge rusher Micah Parson (14.5), DT Osa Odighizuwa (13.5), and DE Demarcus Lawrence (9) can be a real load up front for Dallas in the sack department. Brandon Graham (11.5) and DE Jalen Carter (9.5) provide much of the pressure for Philadelphia. If the Eagles cannot get after Prescott, then Dallas could have some sustained offensive success.

   Final Analysis: Philly stumbled badly last week but have been, otherwise, stellar. They need to get the running game going and maybe some more vertical passes to WRs Devonte Smith and AJ Brown. Both have solid averages, but they have combined for 7 games in which they have totalled less than 40 yards in a game! A tough one to call here, but gonna go Philly to rebound. Philadelphia 27-22.  

4:25 PM New York Jets (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-5)

Front Running Jets!  Cards' Feathers Ruffled Last Week

   The Jets do not have a history of success and have never made a single appearance in a Super Bowl in the 47 seasons of PFL football! But, so far anyways, they have been able to stay on top of the AFC East. They have games against these Cardinals and then the Colts before they hit their bye week. After that, though, the slate takes a steep turn uphill as they will then face the Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins twice, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Los Angeles Rams!  Yikes. The Cards were blasted by the Chicago Bears, 41-19, last week ending their 3-game winning run. They are sitting in last place in the very competitive NFC West and can ill-afford to fall much further behind.

   Final Analysis: Both teams have to have this one. Just feel New York is the better overall team on both sides of the ball. New York 26-17.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

8:20 PM PM Detroit Lions (1-7) at Houston Texans (4-4-1)

Can Toothless Lions Claw Their Way Back? Texans in Must-Win Mode?

      The Detroit Lions could not protect QB Jared Goff last week as the team dropped a tough game to the Green Bay Packers, 23-13. The only touchdown they scored was on a pick-6 by CB Ennis Rakestraw and the offense never got going finishing with just 89 yards passing and 77 yards rushing. The Texans find themselves in dangerous territory after their, 31-24, loss to the Jets last week. They now trail both the Titans and the Jaguars in the AFC South and might be too far behind Jacksonville to have any true hopes of winning the division. They need a win here big time.

   Texan QB CJ Stroud has to play better. His 58% completion rate is last in the division. HB Joe Mixon is averaging over 100 YPG rushing, but he needs Stroud to get back to the type of numbers he put up last year as a rookie. The Texans' D does have 54 sacks and 9 takeaways, but they are 18th overall and 21st against the pass (228.3 YPG). Detroit is 30th overall on defense and Goff has been sacked a league high 71 times!  The combo has proven to be fatal thus far.

   Final Analysis: Detroit is trying hard to figure things out. HB Jahmyr Gibbs is good and Goff can be excellent, but the lack of pas protection is killing the offense and putting too much pressure on the defense. Houston has a good running game and just needs Stroud to hit his stride. Houston 26-16.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

8:15 PM Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Are Dolphins for Real? Can Rams Rebound From Disappointing Showdown with Seahawks?

     The Miami Dolphins and Coach Mike Kleinknecht put some fear in the league last week as the Fish rolled to a, 44-19, wipe out of the Buffalo Bills. QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for a season high 339 and had three touchdown passes while HB De'Von Achane raced 16 times for 132 yards and 2 scores! The league now has to brace itself to see if K-Necht has figured out his latest method of attack or if the game was more of a one-off event. The Rams were humbled, 19-0, last week by a ferocious Seattle Seahawk defense that limited LA to a stunning 22 yards passing! LA is 17th overall in defense and 20th against the pass (224.9 YPG) and that could be a formula for disaster if the Dolphin offense kicks in here again.The Rams are also 20th in running the ball (82.1 YPG) and might not be able to take advantage of the light Miami front 7.

   Final Analysis: This one has the look of a passing game duel. However, the Dolphins may have found gold in the explosive legs of Achane. LA can lean on HB Kyren Williams, who has been a workhorse of late averaging 26 carries and 111.3 YPG over the past three games. But, despite those numbers, the team has averaged 20.67 PPG and QB Matt Stafford has thrown 48 passes over the past two games, which is his lowest two game total of the year!  Miami 30-24.   

ON A BYE