THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

8:20 PM Los Angeles Rams (7-5-1) at San Francisco 49ers (6-7)

Survival Time at Levi's Stadium for Niners?

   The season is winding down quickly and this game is absolutely a Must-Win for the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams cannot afford a loss either, but do have a great shot at making it into the post-season regardless of the outcome. However, a loss to San Fran would give the Niners a sweep of the season series and the tie-breaker should it come to that. Still, with games remaining versus the Jets, Cardinals, and a season ender with the Seattle Seahawks, the Rams would be favored in two of those three games and could still get to 9 wins. With the tie adding, essentially, a half-win it would mandate that teams would need at least 10 wins to knock them out including these Niners.

   LA suffered a damaging loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, 23-20, despite sacking Buffalo QB Josh Allen 10 times. Usually, when Allen is dropped that many times the Bills lose, but, he did not throw an interception and would complete 72 % (27-37) of his pass attempts for 330 yards. Matt Stafford, on the other hand, would complete just 51% (17-33) of his throws, would be sacked 7 times, and throw an interception. The Rams would not be able to get their running game going effectively with HB Kyren Williams rushing for 79 yards on 23 carries. LA is 5-0-1 in any game where Williams has rushed for at least 92 yards.

   The 49ers became the latest victim of coach Mike Kleinknecht's "Heave Ho" offense and Mikey-Ball football as the Chicago Bears crushed them, 39-17. The Bears would pour it on with rookie QB Caleb Williams passing for 454 yards and 3 touchdowns and RB D'Andre Swift rushing for 101 yards on 22 carries. In all, Chicago would amass 572 yards of offense and 28 first downs! San Fran, yet again, completely ignored running the ball with HB Christian McCaffrey touching it just 6 times for 24 yards. QB Brock Purdy would end up being sacked 8 times, completing only 53% (22-41) of his passes, and getting picked off once. They would finish with only 13 first downs and losing the time-of-possession battle by a whopping 13 minutes!

   Final Analysis: San Fran's unwillingness to run the football as led to wide TOP gaps. They were able to win the TOP in their victory over the Bills two weeks ago despite not having much success running the ball. Still, they did run the ball with McCaffrey some 18 times. The Rams are ranked 25th against the pass and that could allow SF to play their game here and get into a high-scoring affair similar to the, 34-31, game these two played earlier this season. San Francisco 30-27.

1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (8-5)

Can Chiefs Right Their Ship? Browns, Smarting From Loss to Hated Steelers, Need to Rebound

   The ice bath tub inside the Kansas City Chiefs training room could not be made cold enough. QB Patrick Mahomes was nearly snorkeling in the 55 degrees tub water following his team's, 34-20, loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in which he would be sacked an incredible 20 times! He would still find some way to throw for 305 yards and a touchdown while completing 69% (27-39) of his pass attempts, but the sacks took their toll. Once again, the KC offense was lopsided. HB Isiah Pacheco, who had been on a roll, was stymied for 38 yards on 16 carries. The Cleveland Browns had a huge opportunity to exorcise the Pittsburgh Steelers' demons of the past but, instead, would see Pittsburgh rally from a 10-point deficit heading into the 4th quarter and put up 21 points to win, 49-45! Steeler MLB Cole Holcomb would pick off QB DeShaun Watson at his 3-yard line and rumble 97 yards to paydirt in the contest!

   KC just has not figured out a way to protect Mahomes nor get offensive balance. Amazingly, his 4359 passing yards ranks #2 in the league behind San Francisco's Brock Purdy (4588). Oddly, though, the two signal callers have been sacked 127 and 110 times respectively, which has Mahomes the most hammered QB in football and Purdy right there at #3! 

   Watson hurled the pigskin around the stadium last week for an eye-popping 536 yards and 6 touchdowns! It was, easily, his best game of the season, but still was not enough to hold off the Steelers who came in with one of the top defenses in the league. That would be due to the Holcomb heroics and the fact that Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson threw 4 TD passes with 430 yards and HB Najee Harris outgained the Browns' Nick Hubbard.

   Final Analysis: KC is in no real danger of losing the AFC West, but they need to figure out how to keep Mahomes upright. The Browns exploded on O last week against a very good Pittsburgh defense and can only hope that is a good sign going forward. Cleveland ranks 26th (58) in the league in the sack department and that could be a huge factor in the Chiefs' favor. Cleveland 32-26.

 1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Tennessee Titans (7-6)

Cinci-Tenn In Major Playoff Battle

   As the season winds down, these two teams find themselves involved in a contest with serious playoff implications. The winner keeps a solid foot in the playoff door while the loser could be in deep trouble. The Bengals defeated the Dallas Cowboys in a key intra-conference game last week, 33-27, and are in position to make one of their late season runs. They have games versus the Browns and Steelers still ahead of them, but at least they would have some control of their destiny. Tennessee has lost three of its last four and must stop the bleeding ASAP. They are still without a full-time staff, but have been consistently run. HB Tony Pollard has been very inconsistent and has been held to 50 or fewer yards rushing in seven of his last nine games.

   Neither team has been able to run the ball particularly well this season. The Titans lost Derrick Henry to the Ravens while the Bengals saw Joe Mixon, who is leading the PFL in rushing, head off to Houston. The lack of a running game has put alot of pressure on QBs Joe Burrow and Will Levis. Burrow has thrown 20 TD passes and 13 interceptions. Levis has 28 TD passes and 9 interceptions, but has been sacked some 96 times as the running game ranks 31st in the league.

   Final Analysis: Tennessee is the better pass defending team allowing 199.2 YPG compared to the Bengals at 237.5 YPG.  Burrow gets sacked far less but turns it over more. Tennessee 26-21. 

1:00 PM Washington Commanders (1-12) at New Orleans Saints (7-6)

Saints Seeking Solace Vs Commanders

   The New Orleans Saints continued to free fall last week as they were thoroughly man-handled by the New York Giants, 45-26! The defense could not stop the running game all day long giving up 225 yards and QB Derek Carr threw another pick in the loss. Washington is coming off their bye week and should be good to go. They need help in the off-season, but clearly have their guys in QB Jayden Daniels and HB Brian Robinson.

   The Saints have a bit of a tough road ahead of them as they try to to get into the playoffs. Following this one, they have road games in frigid Green Bay and a week 18 showdown with the Tampa Bay Bucs. A game against a tough Raiders' squad is sandwiched in between. They continue to have issues with Carr throwing interceptions. HB Alvin Kamara is doing his job each week, but the picks and a suddenly suspect defense is a growing concern. If the D cannot stop folks enough, it will force Carr to the air more and he simply must stop finding the jersey's of the opponent.

   Washington has not had a good season record-wise. But the future does look very promising especially at the quarterback position with Daniels. They will need to fill holes, for sure, in the off-season but will be in an excellent position to do so.

   Final Analysis: Both teams rank 19th or below in both pass and run defense. However, the Saints average 361.5 YPG on offense which has them at #2 and should be the difference here. New Orleans 29-20.

1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens (10-3) at New York Giants (8-5)

Ravens in Yet Another Big Intra-Conference Contest. Surging G-Men With Big Opportunity

   Two weeks ago Baltimore was involved in, what many felt, the biggest intra-conference game of the season when they took on the Philadelphia Eagles. But the game got away from them as Philly QB Jalen Hurts riddled them for 535 yards while Baltimore's Lamar Jackson would toss 2 picks and get sacked by Eagles' DE Jalen Carter 6 times! Meanwhile a hungry bunch of Giants seem to be on fire these days. After blasting the Dallas Cowboys, 45-21, two weeks ago they rolled up another 45 points on the Saints last week as they stayed hot, 45-26. HB Devin Singletary has been galloping at will as the team has reverted back to its roots of powering the ball on the ground. The 5-year veteran rushed for 168 yards on 23 carries and has eclipsed the 100-yard plateau in three of his last four games...At the same time, much maligned QB Daniel Jones has been playing extremely well. Jones has completed 79% (82-104) of his throws over the team's last four games with 11 touchdowns compared to a lone interception!

   Final Analysis: The Ravens rank 24th in the league versus the run and that could be problematic in this matchup especially if Jones can keep playing at such a high level for New York. Both are top 10 teams on both O and D. Baltimore has gone 1-2 versus the NFC East with the win coming against Washington, 28-20. New York 26-24.

1:00 PM Dallas Cowboys (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (4-10)

Pokes Clinging to Fading Playoff Hopes...

   The Dallas Cowboys have to win this game in order to have any realistic avenue to the playoffs. With Tampa Bay and Philadelphia on the horizon, they cannot afford to limp into those games with 8 losses under their belt. The team ranks 26th in total offense and 27th running the ball (67.7 YPG). Micah Parsons and Osa Odighizuwa pace the defense with 22 and 18 sacks respectively for a sqaud with 83 traps, but the defense is 23rd ranked allowing 327.8 YPG! Carolina's struggles have been well documented as they need help in several areas come the off-season.

   Final Analysis: A Must-Win game for Big D could become sticky if the Panthers come to play. Carolina is 32nd on offense, though, averaging a league low 253.1 YPG and that number should allow Dallas to slip away. Dallas 24-15.

1:00 PM New York Jets (5-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-3)

Jags Finally Righting Ship? Jets grounded?

   The Jacksonville Jaguars had been stumbling along without a full-time staff. They were able to nip the Tennessee Titans, 20-16, last week as the defense held QB Will Levis and HB Tony Pollard in check much of the day. QB Trevor Lawrence, though, has looked more like his past seasons than the MVP caliber play of earlier on this year. He threw another interception and now has tossed 4 picks over his last three games after having just 1 over his prior 10 games! The Jets may have seen their year crash land as they dropped their fourth in row, 30-10, to the high-flying Miami Dolphins.

   Final Analysis: Both franchises without FT staffs has really hurt their odds. The Jags are still very much so a playoff contender, but the Jets likely have seen their chance fly by. Jacksonville 26-18.

GAME OF THE WEEK

1:00 PM Miami Dolphins (7-5-1) at Houston Texans (8-4-1)

 Have Dolphins and K-Necht Found Their Rhythm? Hot Texans Try to Lasso Fifth in a Row

    The Miami Dolphins are on the cusp of claiming the AFC East. The Houston Texans are holding out hope of catching the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, but likely will need to win this matchup in order to do it. The Fish recovered nicely from their loss to Green Bay two weeks ago with a, 30-10, whipping of the Jets. The offense has been a bit up and down, but the D has been stellar holding three of its prior four opponents to 10 points or less and gave up just 13 to the Packers! Houston beat the Jaguars two weeks ago and come in on a four game winning streak...

   Miami has gotten some solid play out of QB Tua Tagovailoa. He has thrown 22 TD passes on the season with just 2 picks for a 108.4 QBR. The running game featuring De'Von Achane can be either explosive or dormant. The speedy back had posted back-to-back 100+ yard games until last week when he toted the ball just 7 times for 7 yards! Rookie back Jaylen Wright would come on and run for 82 yards on 16 carries. Achane has had some terrific games, but he has also had some clunkers. He has four 100+ yard efforts, but has five games where he has run for 61 yards or less. Tagovailoa has had three games without a TD pass and in those games the Dolphins scored, 6,10, and 12 points (9.33 PPG)! Miami's 35% red zone efficiency rating is another concern as that number ranks 24th in the league. Conversely, the Dolphins are scoring 25.3 PPG, are 6th in the league with 1330 yards rushing, and have a very good +6 turnover margin. 

   Houston is playing its best ball of the season. The defense has been outstanding with 89 sacks, the #4 run defense in the league (72.3 YPG), a league best 9 fumble recoveries, and a +7 turnover margin! QB CJ Stroud started his season off slowly, but he has been enfuego lately. The sophomore signal caller has rolled up six consecutive 100+ QBR games and has not thrown a pick in seven straight games and in at least 230+ pass attempts! His play is now complimenting the running of the league's leading rusher, Joe Mixon, who enters this fracas having rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last four games and now has 1430 yards and an incredible 17 touchdowns!

   This game features two of football's most dynamic receiving corps. Miami boasts the mercurial speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as well the downfield threat of TE Jonnu Smith. Houston brings three speedsters in Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs, and the tough to defend 6'4" 215 Lbs frame of Nico Collins. TE Dalton Schultz is not super fast, but he catches everything thrown near him as his 8% drop rate supports.

   Final Analysis: Houston coach Jim Retter has never beaten a Mike Kleinknecht coached team and the psychology could play a role here. That being said, if the Texans can run the ball versus a good Miami run defense, they can control the game and keep the ball out of the hands of Tagovailoa and coaching of Kleinknecht. If the game becomes more of a shootout styled game, that would seem to favor Miami at this time. Tough one to call but...Houston 26-24.

4:25 PM Indianapolis Colts (7-6) at Denver Broncos (4-9)

Battle of the Ponies! Can White Hot Colts Race Past Broncos?

    The Colts are coming off their bye week and are as hot as any team in the PFL right now. The defense has not been super and the running game has not been consistent, but the team keeps finding ways to win. Denver still does not have a full-time staff and were hammered, 38-0, by the Cleveland Browns before their bye week.

   The play of QB Anthony Richardson has been the story in Indy. A-Rich has thrown 16 touchdown passes over his past five games and has posted a 100+ QBR in all five outings. He has accomplished the feat nine times already this year!

   Final Analysis: Without a FT staff, it is hard to see the Broncos halting the Colts' stampede. Expect Richardson to continue to excel. Indianapolis 28-18.

4:25 PM Buffalo Bills (5-8) at Detroit Lions (2-11)

Bills Keep Improving. Lions' O Not Performing?

     The Buffalo Bills keep showing signs that they are on the verge of being one heckuva dangerous squad going forward. They upset the Kansas City Chiefs a few weeks back and just stunned the Rams, 23-20, last week! They now have wins over Miami, Kansas City, the Rams, and Tennessee and a very narrow loss to the Seattle Seahawks on their resume. Yes, QB Josh Allen would be sacked 10 times (an MO that has usually spelled doom for Buffalo) but the burly signal caller would not tun it over and would finish with 330 yards passing. The Lions were rudely handled by the Green Bay Packers last week in Motown as the offense struggled finishing with just 202 total yards. HB David Montgomery rushed for just 66 yards on 24 carries filling in for the injured Jahmyr Gibbs.

   Both teams have not been good at stopping the pass. Buffalo is 30th in the league allowing 265.5 YPG while Detroit is giving up a 25th rated 241.5 YPG. However, the Lions are dead last in the league in passing averaging just 154.9 YPG while the Bills are 16th putting up 223 YPG. So, unless Detroit threatens the Buffalo secondary, the Bills will likely be able to keep this one under control.

   Final Analysis: Buffalo is geting slowly better. Detroit has had offensive problems and have not solved them yet. Buffalo 30-20.  

4:25 PM Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)

Pennsylvania Backyard Brawl for Bragging Rights!

   The Eagles will host their in-state rivals in the City of Brotherly Love this week. Philly is ranked #4 on offense (350 YPG) and #6 on defense (292.3 YPG) and is one of just three PFL teams that is ranked in the top 10 in both categories! The team has scored 40+ points in each of its last two games including a convincing , 46-27, rout of the Baltimore Ravens two weeks back. Pittsburgh has leaned on its #4 rated defense (276.5 YPG) much of the season. The offense has had trouble moving the ball against top defensive units and the club has a -5 turnover margin.

   This game will get down to whether or not Pittsburgh can hold Philly down enough to give them a shot. If the offense has to generate a ton of points, a win seems highly unlikely. They have scored 25+ points in a game just four times all season and face a Philly team that has accomplished that feat eight times.

   Final Analysis: Philly is the more well-rounded team and their defense should hold Pittsburgh in check. Expect the Steelers to play solid D, but just not enough to win. Philadelphia 27-19.

4:25 PM New England Patriots (5-8) at Arizona Cardinals (6-7)

Cards Are Yet Another Team in Must-Win Deal

    The Arizona Cardinals have battled all season long and have been able to hang in the playoff discussion as a result. They have suffered two heart-breaking losses to the front running Seattle Seahawks over the past three weeks or else they would be in a very different situation. They have wins over the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins and another three defeats by four points or less on their resume. New Engalnd's season is likely over barring some major good fortune. 

   The Cards finish out their season with games against the Rams and Niners and could find their way into the playoffs with a win here and then winning a finale against the Niners in week 18! The team really has not had any standout players on either side of the ball, but has played almost everyone tough nonetheless! 

   Final Analysis: Arizona is a very dangerous team few really want to face. A win here in the Desert would set them up to determine their own fate.  Arizona 26-22.

4:25 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-11)

Bucs-Bolts Meet in SOFI

       Tampa Bay is coming off a stunning, 44-17, debacle in Vegas last week and need to regoup. They still hold a 2-game lead in the NFC South, but the play of last week has folks concerned. QB Baker Mayfield has had a fine season throwing 29 touchdowns compared to just 8 interceptions with a solid 106.7 QBR. HB Rachaad White has rushed for 1090 yards and WR Mike Evans has piled up 1241 yards and 10 touchdown receptions! Edge rusher Ya-Ya Diaby has quietly posted 20 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. The Chargers dumped the Kansas City Chiefs, 34-20, last week to keep KC reeling. However, QB Justin Herbert tossed his 18th pick of the season and it was the defense, with 20 sacks, that really was the story.

   Final Analysis: Tampa has thrown just 8 picks all year long and Mayfield has been sacked only 35 times on the season! The Chargers will need their offense to pick it up if they want to pull off the upset. The Bucs, though, are #7 in total defense and their 87 team sacks ranks tied at #8. Tampa Bay 30-18.

8:20 PM Green Bay Packers (8-5) at Seattle Seahawks (11-2)

Pack in Great Northwest to Confront Mighty "Hawks

     The Green Bay Packers have been laboring on offense much of the season. They did, though, finally show some signs of life last week as they raced off to a huge first half lead and cruised to a rare, 31-8, win in Detroit. QB Jordan Love threw a season best 4 touchdown passes and the 34 points was the team's second most tallied in any game this season. Seattle kept its habit of winning close games intact last week as they held off a game Arizona Cardinal bunch, 22-20. The Seattle D has recorded six defensive scores on the year and have 14 takeaways now. 

   Seattle has a +7 turnover margin as the offense has been able play game management football in most games this year. Their 7 fumble recoveries is tops in the NFC and their 94 sacks ranks #3 in the league! Rookie sensation DE Byron Murphy has compiled an impressive stat line with 23 sacks. 2 forced fumbles, and has one of the team's defensive scores to boot!

   Green Bay's defense has not been a slouch. The Packers lead the NFC with 96 sacks and the PFL with 17 takeaways. Their pass defense is tops in football allowing just 167.1 YPG. That means the Seahawks will need to likely establish the running game if they do not wish to place QB Geno Smith in harms way. Seahawk HB Kenneth Walker Jr. is a major weapon, although he has not been quite as explosive as expected. He does have three 100+ yard games this season, but has been limited to 59 or fewer yards in each of his last three games. WRs DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and TE Noah Fant have accounted for a combined 18 touchdowns with Lockett and Smith-Njigba averaging an electric 19.2 and 17.5 YPC respectively!

   Final Analysis: The Packers will need to move the ball somehow and score some points. Seattle has big time playmakers on both sides of the ball that have shown up virtually every game this season. Seattle has the league's longest current win streak (10). Seattle 27-20  

8:00 PM Chicago Bears (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7-1)

Vikes Try to Stay Relevant With Upset of Windy City Bunch 

   The Chicago Bears have been playing great ball of late and have the inside track to win the NFC North. Minnsota has to have this game or likely fall out of playoff contention. The Vikings lost a well played game in Chitown just a couple of weeks ago, 27-19, with rookie QB JJ McCarthy throwing for 292 yards. They have won three out of their last four games and have proven they can be a tough out.

   The Bears have been reliant upon the play of rookie QB Caleb Williams. He has been enfuego recently tossing 17 TD passes over his last six games and has recorded back-to-back 400+ yard games coming into this one! Fellow rookie, WR Rome Odunze has taken the league by storm with 90 receptions for 1044 yards and 9 touchdowns! He ranks #2 in the league in receptions!

   Final Analysis: Chicago's offense is good, but their defense could be the difference here. The Bears are allowing 299.5 YPG compared to Minnesota's 31st rated 353.3 YPG. Chicago 30-21.

8:30 Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-9)

Falcs Good Bet in Vegas?

   The Atlanta Falcons and their collegiate style offense are heading to Vegas. QB Malik Willis now has a sub 100 QBR, but HB Bijan Robinson has been churning it up having rushed for 155 and 179 yards in his last two games! Vegas' roster, quite simply put, is devoid of just about any offensive weapons. QB Gardner Minshew is clearly not the answer, the team recently resigned HB Zamir White, and the receiving corps, outside of Tre Tucker is not very fast. In addition, the club, currently, is without a full-time staff.

Final Analysis: Atlanta will likely have plenty of success running the football while the Raiders will probably struggle trying to move the football. Atlanta 30-16.