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Week 18: Monster Rivalry Games: Bears/Pack Giants/Eagles! Colts/Bengals/Browns/Titans/Bills in Pressure Cookers...
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4:30 PM Carolina Panthers (4-12) at Atlanta Falcons (6-10)
Falcons Prepping for Next Season, Panthers Looking To Draft
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Both clubs have something to look forward to and are in a period of evaluation. For Atlanta, it is looking more and more like their college styled offense is going to be the big thing in Mercedes-Benze Stadium. For Carolina, a number of big decisions have to be made, but indications keep trending towards them moving forward with QB Bryce Young in the fold.
This is the last time this season the two clubs will have to finalize some important decisions for the off-season and beyond. They both reside within the NFC South and, not only have to beat each other, but will need to contend with the Saints and Buccaneers as well.
Final Analysis: Carolina has been playing better as Bryce Young has been given more successful play options. The defense needs help and the offensive line will need to be beefed up. The Falcons will play option football and then try to slip in some passing as well to keep teams honest next year. They have a ton of weapons already in place, so how they address their needs will be key. Atlanta 22-20.
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8:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) at Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Can Colts Kick Their Way Through the Playoff Door?
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Step 1 last week went for the benefit of the Colts! Tennessee and Cincinnati lost. The combination for them to get in will require a week 18 victory and, so it seems, Indy will be in! The Jags have secured no worse then the #2 seed, but can still get the top seed with a win and a loss by the Ravens.
Indy barely lost the first meeting between these two teams, 20-17, as they stuffed the J-Ville running game for a miserable 21 yards. If they can keep the running game in check again and force QB Trevor Lawrence into a one-dimensional posture, they have a very real shot at an upset here. In addition, Jacksonville has not been stable with their coaching staff leading to a wobbly second half of the season.
Final Analysis: The Colts can do this, but will need to upset the Jags or get some help to sneak into the post-season. Still, here they are! Gonna take Colts in a small upset here. Indianapolis 23-20.
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1:00 PM Minnesota Vikings (6-9-1) at Detroit Lions (2-14)
Vikes Lamenting Coming Up Short. Lions in Off-Season Mood
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Minnesota came very close to making the playoffs this season and can look ahead to next year with some serious expectations. The Lions cannot get to the end of this nightmare of a season fast enough. Nothing seemed to go right for them...
The Vikings just could not seem to beat any teams with a .500 record or better this year going 3-9-1 in those games. On the other hand, they played one of the toughest schedules in the league and were competitive in many of those defeats, so how they build their team and make decisions in the upcoming draft and free agency could determine their fate come next season.
Detroit never seemed to get any break in any games. The defense simply was not good enough and will need some upgrades there. They gave up 30+ points five times this year losing all five of those games. The offensive line is rated as one of the best in football, yet QB Jared Goff has been sacked 117 times so it may require a new scheme come next year.
Final Analysis: Minnesota had a decent season and would like to finish out strong. A few breaks here and there could have had them in the playoffs. They went with rookie QB JJ McCarthy in the back half of the season and he played well, so it is likely they may feel they have their guy at the position. He should end the year with some solid numbers against the porous Detroit D. Minnesota 30-21.
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Game of the Week
1:00 PM Chicago Bears (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Bitter Rivals Clash at Lambeau for NFC North Crown
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This old rivalry has some history to it and this one is sure to add to it. The winner will take home the NFC North Division and get a home playoff game as the #4 seed, although Green Bay does have an avenue for a higher seed. The Bears were the last team to beat the Packers, 10-9, back in week 11 in a brutal defensive battle. Chicago would win despite QB Caleb Williams being picked off twice and suffering some 15 sacks.
Since that classic duel, Green Bay has reeled off six wins in a row with the offense slowly picking up steam. The once maligned running game has found its rhythm with the insertion of rookie tailback Marshawn Lloyd into the backfield rotation. HB Josh Jacobs has rushed for over 100 yards in two of his last three games with 4 touchdowns while Llyod has chipped in with 23 carries for 120 yards (5.2 YPC) since getting some run. The improved ground game has really helped QB Jordan Love. Love has now posted four straight 120+ QBR games with 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions!
Chicago has also been hard to stop these days. They have won six of their last seven while avergaing 33.8 PPG over their prior five games! Rookie sensation QB Caleb Williams has rolled up six consecutive 100+ QBR performances and has been nothing short of spectacular of late. He has completed 69 % (156/225) of his pass attempts with a staggering 18 touchdowns compared to just 2 interceptions during the streak!
This one is very likely to get down to the Packers' top tier pass defense versus the hi-octane passing attack of the Bears. Chicago cannot afford another heavy sack total on Williams, so their running game will become important as well. Both teams have been a bit vulnerable to the run, but those stats can be misleading as, in truth, both teams are solid defensively.
Final Analysis: The two coaches in this one should have their teams well prepared and ready to go. Oddly, a win by the Bears would likely set up a first round matchup between these same two teams! Chicago 26-22.
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1:00 PM Houston Texans (9-6-1) at Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Titans Try to Avoid Late Season Swoon? Texans Eye Playoff Foe
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Tennessee has battled hard all season long and put themselves in prime position to seize a playoff chair over the final week of the season. However, they were dumped by the Jaguars last week and now have to contend with a very good Texans' team this week and could very well end up outside the post-season party should they lose again here.To say the pressue is on in Tennessee would be an under-statement,
The biggest problem facing the Titans is a total inability to run the football. In a close, 15-10, loss last week to Jacksonville, HB Tony Pollard was corralled for 15 yards on 11 carries. He has carried the ball 61 times for 164 yards over his last four games averaging a paltry 2.69 YPC! Houston has not been confronted with such a problem with tailback Joe Mixin knocking on the door of his first rushing title. Joe Mix has run for 1672 yards and a PFL best 17 rushing touchdowns!
Final Analysis: A huge game for Tennessee. Houston has a spot in the playoffs, but a loss here would drop them behind the Titans into the #6 seed and a rematch with the Dolphins. That game ended with a miracle last second score by the Dolphins in one of the wildest games of the season, 50-49! Houston outgunned Tennessee in their first meeting, 48-36, with Mixon having a 111 yard, 4 TD rushing game and Pollard ending with just 11 yards...Houston 30-22.
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1:00 PM Washington Commanders (2-14) at Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
DC Gang Excited About Future. Pokes Need Answers
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Both of these teams actually have quite a bit to be exuberant about for their futures. Washington has their QB in Jayden Daniels who is about to conclude a very successful rookie campaign. He is coming off a 399 yard, 3 TD performance against the Falcons, albeit in another losing cause, and has been steady all year long. He will need to be more accurate with his throws and could use a bit more arm strength and it remains to be seen if he can garner those attributes or not.The running game should have been much better, but HB Brian Robinson lacks edge speed and the offensive line needs major improvement. If the Commanders can make strides at just a few positions, they could be a real factor next season. Dallas has a similar dilemma as far as the ground game goes. Rico Dowdle barely has enough edge speed and also lacks the power running attributes to gain extra yards inside. QB Dak Prescott is still solid, but is entering the back half of his career. The lack of a running game saw him throw 40+ passes in a game some seven times with the team going 3-4 in those contests.
Final Analysis: The Cowboys need to find offensive balance and a top tier running back sure would go a long ways in that regard. Micah Parsons and Osa Odighizuwa have had stellar seasons each recording 22 sacks entering this game! The main problem has been stopping the run where they are ranked 27th (107.2 YPG). Acquiring a top notch NT type to play alongside Odighizuwa has to be a priority. Dallas 28-22.
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1:00 PM Buffalo Bills (8-8) at New England Patriots (5-11)
Playoff Mania at All-Time High For Bills! Patriots' Late Season Collapse has Fans Wondering
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It has been a long time coming for the Buffalo Bills to be in the playoff mix on the last weekend of the regularr season. They have fought all season long and come into their final game on a four game winning streak! They will need to win this matchup and get quite a bit of help in order to make the playoffs, but this is a franchise that was dead in the water just a month ago so one has to excuse the enthusiasm and belief in the Queen City. The Patriots went in the exact opposite direction of the Bills. They come in having lost five straight and the buzz surrounding rookie QB Drake Maye has taken a decidedly downward turn. The Ex-North Carolina Tarheel was rolling along for much of the season, but he has now put up five consecutive sub-90 QBR games with just two TD passes during that stretch compared to four interceptions. He has also thrown for less than 200 yards in seven of his last nine games.
Final Analysis: Buffalo is definitely heading in the right direction and just needs to build off this season's success. They may make the playoffs, but will need some help to do so. The Pats will, now, need to evaluate Drake Maye and see if he is the answer going forward. He has a cannon for an arm, but needs touch on the all-important mid-range passes and has to become more savvy in terms of awareness, but he has, otherwise, the tools to be very good. Buffalo 27-24.
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1:00 PM Cleveland Browns (8-8) at Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
Browns Head to Baltimore Needing an Upset and Some Luck. Ravens Want Top Seed
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The Cleveland Browns are one of several teams on the hot seat this weekend trying to gain access to the playoffs. Four losses in a row has crushed, what seemd to be a shoo-in, playoff enthusiasm and now the team needs a major upset and some help to get in.QB DeShaun Watson has been, well, horrible down the stretch and is coming off a horrendous 11-31-108 game in which he finished with a season low 19 QBR! His longest completion went for a paltry 14 yards, he was sacked 9 times, and also threw 2 interceptions as the Browns lost, 34-14, to the surging Miami Dolphins. The last good game he had was four weeks ago when he threw for 536 yards and 6 touchdowns versus the Steelers, but then the defense was shredded and the club still lost, 48-40! Still, the up and down nature of Watson has made it difficult for the Cleveland coaching staff to deal with as they often have to adjust to the play of Watson in any given contest.
Baltimore has had a very good season, but there remains at least some doubts about their ability to go all the way come the post-season. They have been hard to predict in big games having lost back-to-back outings to the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants a few weeks back and then narrowly nipping the rival Pittsburgh Steelers before routing a very good Houston Texans' team, 41-20, last week! QB Lamar Jackson snapped a personal bad run of five consecutive sub-100 QBR games with a tremendous 155 QBR versus the Texans, but the disparity in those numbers is also the main source for concern.
Final Analysis: The Ravens are, without question, an AFC title contender even with some quation marks surrounding them. The Browns have their own quarterback inconsistencies to deal with, but they can win this game if the good Watson shows up. Cleveland dealt the Ravens one of their four losses earlier this year, 25-22, mostly due to an excellent defensive effort that stuffed HB Derrick Henry and picked off Jackson twice, The Ravens had a long run of a mere 8 yards in the contest. Not sure which QB shows up for either team this week, but do feel the odds favor Baltimore a bit. Baltimore 25-20.
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1:00 PM New York Giants (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
City of Botherly Love? Hell No! Teams Look to Make Statement in I-95 Rivalry
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The Eagles have clinched the #1 seed and might rest their starters. If they do, then all bets are off. But, if they bring their A-game, this one could be a rough and tumble affair between two of football's very best defenses. The Giants have been a top level D for a few seasons now under HC Gabe as well as a power running group. They come in ranked #2 on defense (261.6 YPG) allowing 183.8 YPG (#3) versus the pass and 77.8 YPG (#8) against the run. The Eagles are no slouches, by any means, entering this contest ceding 284.3 YPG (#5) and ranking 5th (207.3 YPG) defending the pass and 7th (77 YPG) at stopping the run. Their 110 team sacks rates #2 in the NFC trailing only the Green Bay Packers (118).
The defenses should dictate how this one plays out. However, the team that can find some room to score could be the difference maker. Philly is #4 in all of football averaging 348.4 YPG and an NFC best 29.4 PPG. New York is not bad at all, though, scoring at a 26.4 PPG clip which ranks 8th in the league and 3rd in the NFC! The big difference is in how the two teams conduct their offensive business. The Giants do it with a pounding running game that is tops in the NFC (128.5 YPG) with a league leading 20 rushing touchdowns. They strut out, arguably, the best 1-2 punch in the game with tailbacks Devin Singletary (258-1161-6-4.5) and rookie Tyron Tracy Jr. (162-725-11-4.5) doing major damage. Tracy's 11 scores is second in the league and leads all rookies in that category.
The Eagles do much of their damage through the air with QB Jalen Hurts. Hurts has thrown for 4695 yards and 30 touchdowns with a 111.9 QBR. Those numbers have him sitting at #6, among regulars, in QBR and #3 in the NFC. He is fifth in yards passing and second in the NFC trailing only the Niners' Brock Purdy, but Purdy has hurled the pigskin all over the place with a league most 650 attempts some 16 interceptions and a stunning 121 sacks.
Final Analysis: The Eagles have been the league's best team this regular season and have proven it on the field time and again. They did win the first meeting between these two clubs, 27-15, but that was when the G-Men had begun to give up on QB Daniel Jones and played Drew Lock! Jones has been a virtual Lazarus. He has posted five games in a row with a 100+ QBR and has eclipsed that plateau in nine of his last ten games! He has been magnificent at protecting the football with just 4 interceptions on the season as he has managed games very well while the defense does its thing. Two very goods teams here, but who Philly puts on the field will be significant. NO LINE DUE TO POSSIBLE PLAYERS BEING RESTED
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1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-9)
Cinci Vying for Playoffs. Will Steelers Spoil Their Fun?
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As has been written about many times, the Bengals have a well established history of making second half playoff runs. It looked like they were about to complete their latest feat until they were, inexplicably, dismantled by the Denver Broncos, 40-16, last week! That loss has put a serious dent in their playoff aspirations and could prove fatal. The Steelers were another team that fell apart down the stretch, dropping their last three games. In their defense (No pun intended), however, they lost to the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs...
Final Analysis: The Bengals can get in, as can several other teams, with a win and a small dose of good fortune. They were, though, completely dominated by the Steelers' defense in the first meeting between these two teams. In that one, Pittsburgh stymied the Cinci offense for 77 yards passing and 46 yards rushing! That, obviously, cannot happen again or the Bengals' season will be over. Not sure how Pittsburgh will play this one, but their defense has carried them much of the year and could here as well. Pittsburgh 17-15?
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1:00 PM New Orleans Saints (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4)
Bucs Sail for Top Seed? Saints Wrapping Up Disappointing Campaign
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In the end, the Saints could not overcome the dismal season QB Derek Carr had. The team tried, but was never able, to get the mojo back that sparked their Super Bowl Title run of two seasons ago when Carr was solid and HB Alvin Kamara was running around, through, and over the top of people. Carr comes in with 20 interceptions on the season (Only the Chargers' Justin Herbert (21) has more) and his 89 QBR is 30th among all regulars. Those stats have killed the team's chances and ultimately wasted another terrific season out of Kamara. He has rushed for 1520 yards and 9 touchdowns and is currently #2 in the league in rushing yardage! Had Carr had even a slightly better season, the Halos would be in the playoffs and a very real threat to go far.
Tampa Bay has enjoyed a much rosier time than the Saints. HB Rachaad White has exploded onto the scene coming in as the fourth leading rusher in football with 1353 yards and 7 touchdowns. QB Baker Mayfield has resurrected his career and is tied atop the league with 37 TD passes and fifth in QBR among all regulars with an eye-popping 112.5 QBR! The defense is rated #6 overall (298.8 YPG) and #2 versus the run allowing only 69.7 YPG. The combination of a very good offense and defense makes the Bucs a real threat in the NFC. Two veteran wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, have had superb seasons. Evans has 88 receptions for 1446 yards and 13 TDs, while Godwin has hauled in 79 balls for 1160 yards and 9 scores!
Final Analysis: Tampa Bay is a solid squad and can claim the #2 seed with a win and a Seattle loss, but cannot claim the #2 seed should Seattle win as the Seahawks have the better games-in-common record (minimum 4 games). The Bucs throttled the Saints, 45-7, back in week 6 as Carr was picked off three times and CB Christian Izien took one back for a 31-yard pick six. This one almost certainly will be much closer. Tampa Bay 26-22.
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4:30 PM Kansas City Chiefs (9-7) at Denver Broncos (6-10)
Is KC Primed for Post-Season? Broncos Happy With Nix in the Saddle!
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The Chiefs have been trying to get their offense figured out all season long. Some experts believe KC is playing a bit of possum and might unleash a ferocious offense once the playoffs start, but that is all pure conjecture. QB Patrick Mahomes was slammed into the turf another 18 times last week by the Steelers, but he still managed to lead the club to a solid second half turning a 6-0 mid-point deficit into, 26-6, win! The Chiefs have a -12 turnover margin, easily the worst among all playoff contenders, due mostly to a very worrisome 13 fumbles lost! Mahomes has been crunched 171 times and fumbled 17 times!
Denver rolled over Cincinnati, 40-16, last week. Rookie QB Bo Nix completed 20 of 24 pass attempts for 190 yards and a touchdown. His accuracy has been very good, but his lack of arm strength is a concern and might be a deterrent going forward. In thirteen of his sixteen games, Nix's longest pass completion has been for 30 yards or less and his arm has limited the vertical options.
Final Analysis: The Chiefs will likely rest their starters, but who knows? They may want to use this game as a final tuneup before the playoffs. Kansas City 26-19.
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4:25 PM Seattle Seahawks (12-4) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6-1)
NFC West Showdown. Two Playoff Teams Tuning Up...
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Seattle needs this game in order to hold off the Buccaneers for the #2 seed. If they were to lose this game while Tampa wins its game, then they would be the #3 seed and likely face either the Chicago Bears or New York Giants. A win here, though, would set up a third meeting between these two teams as LA would be locked into the 7th spot.The Seahawks shut out the Rams in their earlier matchup, 19-0, as Seattle's defense shut down the Rams and HB Kenneth Walker III had his best game of the season rushing for 194 yards on 28 carries. Walker, though, has not had many games like that one and it is doubtful he will replicate that feat in this game.
LA is entering this game with a little bit of momentum. They pulled off an incredible last play win over the Cardinals last week, 35-34, when QB Matt Stafford found WR Puka Nacua for a 69 yard touchdown strike! The team could use some consistency out of HB Kyren Williams, but has gotten mixed efforts out of the diminutive 5'9" 194 LBs back. He has had six 100+ yard outings, but has also had six games where he has run for less than 60 yards.
Final Analysis: LA cannot expect miracle plays, like they got last week, to be there come the playoffs. They need Williams to be a steadying force on the ground and to take some heat off Stafford. Seattle has had a wonderful regular season, but have been a little shaky down the final leg of the season. They were smoked for 45 points in their loss to Chicago last week and gave up 41 to the Packers three weeks ago. They get into trouble if they cannot control the game with their balanced offense and solid defense as QB Geno Smith is really not built to be a gun slinger as much as he is expected to be a game manager. His arm is below average, in terms of strength, relegating the passing trees to be more short to medium distances and then relying on some RAC numbers out of the receiving corps. Could be a tight one. Seattle 20-16.
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4;25 PM San Francisco 49ers (8-8) at Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
.500 Records Not Good Enough to Get Into Playoffs!
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The Niners and Cards will both be sitting home come playoff time due to not quite being able to string enough wins together at the right times. Since their bye week, San Francisco has gone 3-5 and slipped out of the playoffs. QB Brock Purdy is, though, coming off one of his best games this season as he threw for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns in the Niners', 38-3, romp over the Detroit Lions. Despite knowing the numbers, San Fran often found itself passing the ball at will, but not winning games. In games in which HB Christian McCaffrey rushed at least 18 times, regardless of his stats, the Niners went 4-0! Arizona could very well have been a playoff team had it not been for a spectacular 69 yard touchdown pass from Ram QB Matt Stafford to WR Puka Nacua on the game's final play last week! If they were 9-7 and seeking their 10th win, they would have a decent shot at making it in but...
Final Analysis: Disappointing season for both franchsies concludes. Both teams, though, have lots to look forward to and their off-seasons should be extremely interesting as several vets on each squad have to be analyzed. Arizona 31-23.
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4:25 PM Los Angeles Chargers (3-13) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
My Kingdom for a Horse? Well, a Quarterback Will Do Too!
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The disaster of a season for Chargers' signal caller Justin Herbert is finally coming to a merciful ending. Seen as one of footballs' top arms, Herbert has been anything but that tossing a league worst 21 picks and having a deplorable 79 QBR! That type of effort cannot be tolerated and the Bolts must find a way to get his talent to come out come next season. The Raiders' Gardner Minshew did the best he could, but his best just was not good enough. His arm strength is way below average (86) as is his deep ball accuracy (80). Obviously, Vegas will be in the market for an upgrade either through free agancy or the draft.
Final Analysis: Both teams have a ways to go to be able to compete with KC. The Chargers have the talent in Herbert, but need to find ways for him to succeed. The Silver and Black will need to be very careful on who they bring in at quarterback. If that guy is coming via the draft,, they will need to be dead certain he is the man for the job. Las Vegas 24-16.
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8:20 PM Miami Dolphins (10-5-1) at New York Jets (6-10)
Fish to Fry Gang Green or Rest Regulars?
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Miami can rest their regulars or keep pushing. They cannot catch either Jacksonville or Baltimore for the top or #2 seed nor can they fall to the #4 seed. In short, they are locked into the third seed and will face any one of a number of possible opponents in the first round.It would make sense to rest their starters here, but staying in a groove and playing is not a bad option either. The Jets have had a very disappointing and, quite frankly, underachieving season. QB Aaron Rodgers has 1 more year left on his contract and the Jets could very well be in the draft seeking his replacement.
Final Analysis: Not sure how Dolphins will play this one. QB Tua Tagovailoa has played excellent ball in the second half of the season and the defense has come along for the ride. New York can be a dangerous club, but really neither team has anything to play for outside of pride. Miami 30-18.
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