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PFL Wild Card Weekend Previews: Top Seeds Hope to Feast on Home Cooking
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AFC WILD CARD GAME-SATURDAY 1PM: BUFFALO BILLS (9-8) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (12-5)
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The excitement level in Buffalo and the surrounding Western New York region could not be any higher. After seasons of being criticized for not protecting quarterback Josh Allen and finishing below .500, the Bills have finally put it together, battled all season long, and are now back into the PFL Post-Season! They will gladly travel to the warmer climate of the Florida Panhandle to face a Jacksonville team that has kinda stumbled into the playoffs after seeing their coaching staff depart mid-season.
The Bills come in having won five straight games in which a single loss of any of those games meant elimination. In essence, they have already played five playoff contests and are more than prepared to meet the challenge and thrive under the pressure. In an amazing turnaround, the club enters this matchup with the #6 rated offense averaging 350.6 YPG! They finally figured out how to get the running game going with Pro-Bowl tailback James Cook powering the league's #3 rated ground game (128.4 YPG). He rushed some 391 times for 1503 yards and 8 touchdowns and the improved ground game then opened the door for a better passing game out of Allen. He completed 64% of his passes or better in each of his last eight games and posted a 100+ QBR in five of his last seven outings! WR Keon Coleman was a stud all year long with 96 receptions for 1512 yards and 15 touchdowns! FB Reggie Gilliam was rewarded with a Pro-Bowl nod paving the way for Cook.
The defense has been a bit of a half-empty/half-full deal. The pass defense finished 27th in the league giving up 247.5 YPG, but the unit also racked up 115 sacks which placed sixth in the PFL! Undersized DT Ed Oliver had a Pro-Bowl season with 20.5 sacks and 42 TFLs! At 6'1" and just 287 LBs, Oliver used his combination of speed and power to become a true interior menace. Rookie FS Cole Bishop had an immediate impact on the Buffalo secondary with 135 tackles, 7 TFLs, 3 interceptions, 14 pass deflections, and 1 forced fumble. For his efforts, he was also named to the Pro-Bowl squad.
The Jaguars completed the regular season winning the AFC South despite not having a steady coaching staff in place. That being said, the club went just 4-4 in the second half of the season including a loss to the Detroit Lions (20-14) in week 11. QB Trevor Lawrence was enjoying an MVP type season early on, and was named to the Pro-Bowl roster. However, after piling up ten straight 100+ QBR outings and the Jaguars beginning the year at 9-1, the Ex-Clemson Tiger would wind up his season with four of his final seven games with sub-100 QBR ratings. Despite everything, though, Jacksonville still finished #1 in the league averaging 369 YPG, while putting up 27 PPG. A bit unexpectedly, they would conclude the year as the top rushing team in the AFC with 2198 yards! They would employ a duel-threat backfield featuring Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne. The two would post 825 and 823 yards respectively and combine for 10 scores. RG Brandon Scherff was tabbed for the Pro-Bowl squad.
A little known secret has to be the Jaguars' defense. This group led the league in fewest yards (4018) and points (270) allowed, while also amassing 120 sacks (#3 in the league) and 19 takeaways! Pro-Bowl LB Devin Lloyd led a very under-rated unit with 26.5 sacks and was one of three Jaguars who would recorded 20 or more sacks! DE Josh Hines-Allen (22) and Foyesade Oluokun (20) were the other two and those were joined by DE Trevon Walker (17.5) and DT Arik Armstead (16) to form one of the fiercest pass rushing units in all of football! In an oddity, the Jags are one of just three PFL teams that can boast a trio of 20+ sack artists along with the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens!
Final Analysis: The impact of not having a full-time staff has really been felt in J-Ville and could prove fatal. Buffalo 24-22?
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NFC WILD CARD GAME-SATURDAY 8:15 PM: LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-7-1) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (13-4)
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Defeating a divisional opponent three times in a season is tough enough. Having to do that after having just played that team a week earlier makes it that much more difficult a task. But, that is precisely the situation the Seattle Seahawks are confronted with as they attempt to advance into the Divisional Round with a third win over the Los Angeles Rams. Just last week, Seatte won a defensive battle with these Rams, 15-6, with neither team able to gain 300 yards of offense. The Rams' defense played extremely well shutting down QB Geno Smith to a miserable 8-23-95 stat line. His 34.8 % completion rate and 48 QBR were both season lows. However, for the second straight time, the Seahawks' defense completely shut off the LA rushing attack and then were able to get after QB Matt Stafford. HB Kyren Williams could only muster 26 yards on 14 carries for a season low 1.9 YPC average and Stafford would be crunched 10 times by the Seattle pass rush. In their two meetings, the Rams have been able to score just 6 points!
LA will need to find some way to get their ground game going in order to give Stafford some options and time. At the same time, they will have to stop the Seahawks' running game featuring HB Kenneth Walker. It is a sure bet Seattle will try to get their ground game going, as they have much of the season, in order to allow QB Geno Smith to throw the ball in less predictable and safer down and distance situations. LA will also need to try to avoid too many 3rd and long situations. They were an ugly 18% on third down in last week's game and were a depressing 7% on third down in the first encounter with Seattle, losing that one, 19-0!
The Seahawks have a pretty well documented winning methodology: Run the ball, keep Smith clean and out of trouble, and play great defense. The defense can be particularly stingy and has been a top level unit in terms of getting TFLs. They had 15 last week and have 294 on the season!
Final Analysis: Seattle has been able to run the ball versus the Rams and will, no doubt try to do so again this week. The Rams will need to get Smith into predictable passing downs and then do a much better job running the football and not allowing the Seahawks to get penetration into the backfield. Not sure they can do all of that...Seattle 26-20.
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AFC WILD CARD GAME-SUNDAY 1:00 PM: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-0) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5-1)
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When Coach Mike Kleinknecht took over the reins of the Dolphins back in week 7, the very first team he faced were these Indianapolis Colts and Coach Buck. Pro-Bowl DT DeForest Buckner would get to Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa 4 times (Including a strip sack), and the Colts' defense would feast for 7 sacks, the fumble recovery, and get an interception from CB Julius Brents in, what turned out to be, a lopsided, 30-10, Indianapolis win. HB Jonathan Taylor pounded the Dolphin defense with season highs in carries (34) and touchdowns (3) finishing with 98 yards. The 20 point margin of defeat would be the widest under Kleinknecht and it surely will still be fresh on his mind as the two teams enter into this contest.
The Colts would win six consecutive ballgames before dropping a, 32-19, verdict to the Tennessse Titans in week 16 that many saw as a season-ender for them. They would follow that defeat up with another loss the following week, this time to the powerful New York Giants, 25-12, and it seemed a sure thing they would be out of the playoff picture. But, they bounced back with a stunning, 18-17, victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the final week of the season and got a whole bunch of help from other clubs losing and, well, here they are! The Jags' game was a bit miracle mixed in with a bit of questionable play calling. Trailing, 17-10, and having only 1 timeout remaining, things were not looking good for the Indianapolis bunch. But, facing a third down and deep in their own territory, the Jags opted to attempt an ill-advised pass. The Trevor Lawrence throw would be picked off and a few seconds later the Colts were in the endzone. They then, boldly, went for two and converted to seal the dramatic victory!
Indianapolis ranks 22nd in the league in scoring averaging 21.2 PPG and are the lowest rated running team in the entire playoff field rushing for 1399 total yards. The defense recorded just 75 sacks which, again, is the fewest in the playoff field, but the team's 360 points allowed ranked 10th and the club's 14 interceptions was good for 8th in the PFL this season! In addition, the offense finished with an excellent 46% red zone efficiency rating (5th best) and the team had a +5 turnover margin. LG Quenton Nelson and RT Branden Smith each made the Pro-Bowl as did secondary man Kenny Moore.
Miami is not, to say the least, the same club the Colts faced earlier this season. They enter this game on a five-game winning streak and have come out on top in seven of their last eight outings. The offense has averaged 36.4 PPG during the five game run scoring 50 on the Houston Texans and 40 versus the Jets last week to wrap up the regular season! Tagovailoa has rolled up 100+ QBR ratings in each of the five games throwing for 14 touchdowns, 1607 yards (321.4 YPG), and posting an incredible 628 yards and 6 touchdowns in the, 50-49, win over Houston! Backs De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are super fast and been demons much of the year. The two have combined for 1582 yards and 14 touchdowns on the year. Of course, one cannot forget the unmatched speed the Dolphins have at wide-receiver. Tyreek Hill (99 speed) and Jaylen Waddle (97 speed) are, easily, the fastest receiving tandem in football. The overall team speed fits perfectly into Kleinknecht's offensive schemes making Miami an early favorite to get to the Super Bowl. Hill is averaging 19 YPC with 12 touchdowns while Waddle adds 10 more scores with a team high 96 receptions. LT Terron Armstead was named to the Pro-Bowl roster.
OLB Jaelan Phillips earned Pro-Bowl honors with his 20 sacks leading a defense that concluded the season allowing a sixth best 329 points. Miami had a solid +10 turnover ratio with 19 takeaways. If there is a worrisome aspect to the Miami game it would have to be on third down. The Dolphins converted just 30% of the time, a number that has them sitting 30th in the league!
Final Analysis: The Colts can be very unpredictable and cause any team problems on any given Sunday. However, if they cannot run the ball, they might find themselves in an unwanted shootout styled game that favors the mercurial Dolphins. Miami 32-20.
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NFC WILD CARD GAME-SUNDAY 4:30 PM: CHICAGO BEARS (10-7) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (13-4)
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The Chicago Bears came very close to claiming the NFC North Divisional Crown before falling just short. They have had a bit of a checkered season with wins over the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and indianapolis Colts, but have also suffered losses to the Packers, Texans, Rams, and Jaguars. So, which Chicago squad shows up is anyone's guess. The Bucs played very well much of the season enroute to the NFC South title. They have won four straight following a stunning, 44-17, whipping by the Las Vegas Raiders back in week 14.
Chicago placed only one player, SS Juan Brisker, on the Pro-Bowl team, but this group is talented, well coached, and dangerous. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has been tremendous and, arguably, the best signal caller Chicago has had since back in the 1950's! The Ex-USC star threw for 4783 yards, 36 touchdowns, and a sparkling 102.8 QBR! RB De'Andre swift seemed to get better as the season wore on ending with 1035 yards and a 4.0 YPC average. Another rookie, WR Rome Odunze, lit up the Chicago Skyline with 110 receptions for 1278 yards and 10 touchdowns! Odunze would lead a trio 1000 yard targets and was joined by DJ Moore (1124) and Keenan Allen (1098). The defense can be very good at times. The pass rush could be better with just 82 sacks for a defense that finished 15th overall allowing 316.8 YPG. Brisker paced the secondary with 4 picks and 2 forced fumbles, while Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor each had 13 traps.
Tampa Bay was led by Pro-Bowl quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield resurrected his career and had an excellent campaign throwing for 4736 yards, 38 touchdowns, and a 111.2 QBR. He only had 9 picks all season and has a knack for getting rid of the football before absorbing a sack. He would be dropped just 53 times all season! HB Rachaad White enjoyed a stellar season running his way onto the Pro-Bowl roster with 1408 yards and 9 scores. WR Mike Evans completed the triplet Pro-Bowl group with 91 receptions for 1471 yards and 14 touchdowns. Another Pro-Bowl member, LT Tristen Wirfs anchors the offensive line.
The Bucs' defense can be unsettling. The unit finished #1 against the run ceding just 67.8 YPG. The team rolled up 103 sacks and 23 takeaways and, combined with Mayfield's ability to not turn it over, led the team to a +13 turnover margin! OLB Ya-Ya Diaby had 24 sacks in his Pro-Bowl season. He was joined by two other LBs in Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Lavonte David with 18 and 17 sacks respectively.
Final Analysis: This one could be explosive with Williams and Mayfield dueling it out. Tampa looks like it has the edge in the run game and on defense overall. Tampa Bay 27-23.
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AFC WILDCARD GAME-SATURDAY 8:15 PM: HOUSTON TEXANS (10-6-1) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-7)
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The Kansas City Chiefs have a long PFL history of coming up short come the playoffs, but that has been in situations where they were heavy favorites and coming off stellar regular season campaigns. That's not to say winning 10 games and repeating as AFC West Champions is, by any means, something to shake a stick at, but this year was fraught with many ups and downs and just never felt like the dominant seasons of the past. QB Patrick Mahomes was sacked an incredible 181 times, yet still made the Pro-Bowl, due to his 5700 passings yards and 39 TDs! HB Isiah Pacheco had 11 games in which he ran for 55 or fewers yards, but still managed to rush for 1230 yards and 13 touchdowns! The usually prolific Chris Jones recorded only 13 sacks and missed the pro-Bowl for the firs time in ages, but the defense would still garner three Pro-Bowl nominations in LBs Drue Tranquill (24 sacks) and Leo Chenal (20 sacks) along with FS Bryan Cook (4 interceptions)! And, while it may have seemed the offense was in peril, consider that the Chiefs were the only team in football to get, not one, but two wide-receivers selected to the Pro-Bowl squad. Marquise Brown (1581 yards, 14 TDs, 22.3 YPC) and Rashee Rice (1461 yards, 15 TDs, 19.5 YPC) were tremendous. The offensive line, particularly the interior, was deemed excellent despite the sacks. Guards Joe Luney and Trey Smith along with center Creed Humphrey all made the Pro-Bowl!
Houston, for its part, also had a bit of a roller coaster season. They were involved in some of the most wide open games of the season with teams combining for 99, 93, 87, and 84 points in four of their contests! One month ago they dropped an insanely entertaining, 50-49, thriller to the Miami Dolphins and followed that white knuckler up by outgunning these Chiefs, 62-31,in their very next game! That was then a pre-curser to a, 41-20, whipping at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens before the team concluded its season with a, 47-40, wing-dinger victory over the Tennessee Titans! The league leading running game slowed down just a bit in the second half and the club finished 5th averaging 117 yards per game. HB Joe Mixon won his first PFL rushing title with 1799 yards and paced the league with 17 touchdowns on his way to an obvious Pro-Bowl selection. Defensively, the Texans were led by their all-world DE Will Anderson. The 6'4" 263 Lbs Anderson was a wrecking ball to opposing offenses blasting his was to 30 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 1 safety, and 1 touchdown. While it is obvious the defense had some rough outings, the unit still led the league with 130 sacks and tied for the PFL top honors, along with the Philadelphia Eagles, for takeaways with 24!
Final Analysis: The Chiefs have been successful despite some pitfalls especially in pass protection. They led the league with 10 Pro-Bowl members. However, in their first meeting with the Texans, Mahomes would be dropped 15 times and throw two interceptions and Pacheco would be held to 55 yards on the ground. KC's biggest downfall is the sack and Houston is the league's best pass rushing unit. Additionally, Houston's 4th ranked offense can score and control games with its solid ground game with Mixon. QB CJ Stroud ended his season on solid footing finishing with 34 touchdowns compared to only 8 interceptions for a 114.8 QBR. He was sacked only 67 times, which was one of the fewest totals in the league. See the Texans outscoring the Chiefs again. Houston 35-28.
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NFC WILD CARD GAME-MONDAY 8:15 PM: NEW YORK GIANTS (11-6) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-5)
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The final game of the weekend is, well, not actually on the weekend. The PFL, for the first time ever, will feature a Monday Night Playoff game, and the two teams involved are near perfect participants with both franchises having long and storied histories. The Giants have been to four PFL Super Bowls and claimed their lone championship 31 years ago in SB XVII. Green Bay has also been to four title matches, winning three, with their last crown wrapped up 19 years ago when they won back-to-back championships in SBs XXVIII and XXIX. And, of course, few venues are more historic than legendary Lambeau Field where 81,000 plus heavily clad fans will try to cheer their Packers onto victory in what is almost certainly going to be in frigid conditions.
The supportive chatter going around the league seems to possess a decidedly New York flavor. Many see the G-Men as underdogs despite overwhelming numbers to the contrary. The Giants led the PFL in rushing (2200 yards) and rushing touchdowns (22) and were among the league leaders in many key categories. The defense finished 3rd in fewest points allowed (286), was 3rd in defending the pass (3339 yards), 7th versus the run (1308 yards), and was 2nd overall allowing 4647 total yards! The offense was a running powerhouse led by the dual threats of backs Devin Singletary and rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr.. Singletary slashed his way for 1161 yards and 6 touchdowns, while Tracy added 869 yards and a team high 13 touchdowns. However, the play of QB Daniel Jones cannot go unnoticed. Benched earlier in the year, Daniels would be given a second chance and took full advantage of his opportunity. He enters the game with six consecutive 100+ QBR performances. He has tossed 15 touchdowns over his last six games, while getting rid of the ball quickly and avoiding the sack. He has only been dropped 14 times over the five games with no game where he absorbed more than 4! TE Theo Johnson could be a major factor in this one. The Pro-Bowl Johonson snared 85 balls for 1137 yards and 7 scores. And, what cannot be ignored is his outstanding 10.4 RAC number!
The Big Blue defense is no slouch as mentioned earlier. DT Dexter Lawrence is a truly elite and unique talent weighing in at 342 Lbs and is one of football's strongest (96) and most disruptive interior players in the game. New York will utilize players in various roles to gain maximum defensive output as well. LB Brian Burns will move around and blitz from many angles as his 20 sacks, 6 pass deflections, and 1 interception resume indicates. Team sack leader and Pro-Bowl member LB Kayvon Thibodeuax tracked down opposing signal callers some 24.5 times and also had a pick and 4 deflections on his stat sheet. A trio of unsung heroes, DE Elijah Chatman, DE Boogie Basham, and DE Rasheem Green contributed 12, 11.5, and 7 sacks respectively!
Green Bay rolls in having won seven straight. The maligned running game slowly evolved as the season unfolded. HB Josh Jacobs ended the season by going over the 100-yard threshold in three of his final four games. He has benefitted from the play of rookie tailback Marshawn Lloyd who was inserted into the rotation three weeks ago. The Ex-USC Trojan has rushed 33 times for 146 yards (4.42 YPC) over the three dates. QB Jordan Love started the season slowly, but ended the year on a bit of a roll. He ended up with 4110 yards and 29 touchdowns, but what was outstanding about his season was he would throw a league low 4 interceptions, complete 67% of his attempts, and end with a very good 112.1 QBR.
It can be on defense where the Packers can be most disruptive. Little known DT Devonte Wyatt made the Pro-Bowl with his 16 sacks and CB Jaire Alexander joined him with his 5 picks and 15 pass deflections. Green Bay got 27 sacks from DE Rashan Gary, 20 more from DE Preston Smith, 15.5 traps from LB Quay Walker (Who missed 4 games due to injury), and another 12.5 sacks from Wyatt's inside partner DT Kenny Clark. The unit was #2 against the pass (3079 yards), led the NFC with 121 sacks, and ended up right behind the Giants overall giving up 4673 total yards.
Final Analysis: The Giants certainly are no underdogs here. They were excellent on third downs leading the conference with a stirling 44% rate and equally good inside the red zone with a 47% efficiency rating! The Packers are very good at protecting the football and taking it away and, as a result, led the PFL with a +17 turnover margin. Still, New York has superior talent all over the field, especially on defense, the ability to control the game with their running style, and convert on key third downs to keep drives alive. New York 27-22.
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