AFC PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

1 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (15-1)- Have Clinched top seed. Their lone loss was to Miami.

2 Seed: The Miami Dolphins (12-3) will clinch the 2 seed with wins over the Steelers and Jaguars in their final two games. They can clinch the 2 seed with a win over either Pittsburgh or Jacksonville while Las Vegas (12-4) loses to Indianapolis in week 18. Vegas will be the 2 seed if they win or tie against Indianapolis and Miami loses to both Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. The Raiders can also be the 2 seed with a win over the Colts and a loss by Miami to either Pittsburgh or Jacksonville. In this scenario, the two teams would finish with identical 9-3 conference records pushing the tie breaker to the common opponent rule. The teams have played the minimum 4 game common foe mandate having played Kansas City, Philadelphia, and the New York Jets a total of 4 times! Las Vegas went 3-1 while the Dolphins went 2-2. Kansas City can claim the 2 seed with wins over the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers, Miami losing both games to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, and Las Vegas dropping its game to the Colts. They would win the AFC West and then win the tie breaker with Miami due to a regular season win over the Dolphins. No other team can claim the 2 seed regardless of all other outcomes.

3 Seed: Las Vegas (12-4) can claim the 3 seed with a win or tie against the Colts or a loss or tie by Kansas City versus either the Houston Texans or Los Angeles Chargers. Kansas City can claim the 3 seed with wins over both Houston and the Chargers and a loss by Las Vegas to the Colts combined with a win or tie by Miami over its final two games versus Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. No other team can claim the 3 seed regardless of all other outcomes.

4 seed: This is quite complex as this will be the AFC South Champion. Tennessee will win the division if it beats the Colts this week and the Carolina Panthers in week 18 combined with Jacksonville losing its week 18 game to the Dolphins. In that scenario, the Titans hold all the tie breakers with a 3-1 record against the Colts and Jaguars if a 3-way tie were to occur while Indy and J-Ville would end with 3-3 slates. This would, then, have the Colts edging the Jaguars, as Indianapolis swept Jacksonville during the regular season, but they would lose the tie breaker with the Titans due to the teams splitting their regular season meetings and the Titans then having the better divisional record. The Colts can claim the division with wins over Tennessee and Las Vegas. They can also win the division with a win over Tennessee or Las Vegas, a loss by Jacksonville to Miami, and a loss or tie by Tennessee against Carolina. And they can win the division with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Jacksonville against Miami regardless of the result versus the Raiders in week 18. The Jaguars can win the division by beating Miami in week 18 and a Colt loss or tie to either Tennessee or Las Vegas. They can win the division with a loss or tie to Miami in week 18 combined with Indianapolis losing its final two games and a Tennessee loss or tie with Carolina in week 18. They can also win the division with a tie versus Miami and a loss by Indianapolis or the Colts having two ties. Tennessee would not be able to earn a better record, in that scenario, than the Jags. Jacksonville would finish 9-7-1 and Tennessee would finish no better than 9-8. Indianapolis would end at 8-7-2 if they tied both of their final two games. The Houston Texans can finish at 9-8 if they beat both the Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals over their final two contests. However, they would eventually lose the divisional tie breaker to at least one other team within the division. The winner of the AFC South will be the 4 seed.

5 seed: Las Vegas will be the 5 seed if they lose to Indianapolis in week 18 and Kansas City wins its final two games versus Houston and the Chargers. Kansas City will be the 5 seed if it goes 1-1 in its final two games due to a better conference record than the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo (9-6) will be the 5 seed if it wins both games versus the Jets and Giants and Kansas City loses both of its remaining two games. New England (9-6-1) can earn the 5 seed by winning their week 18 game against the Jets combined with Kansas City losing both of its remaining games and Buffalo going 1-1 or 0-0-2. The Patriots lose any divisional tie with the Bills as Buffalo swept the season series. The Pittsburgh Steelers can claim the 5 seed by winning their final two games versus Miami and Chicago, Kansas City losing its final two games, Buffalo going 1-1 or 0-2, and the Patriots losing to the Jets. In that highly unlikely scenario the Steelers would finish 10-7. Kansas City would finish 10-7, Buffalo would finish 10-7  or 9-7-1, and New England would finish 9-7-1. Buffalo would eliminate the Patriots due to the season sweep and then win the spot by virtue of having a better conference record! Jacksonville cannot be the 5 seed under any circumstances. They will have won their division with a 10-7 record via a win over Miami or finish with a 9-8 or 9-7-1 record. Obviously, Kansas City already has 10 wins thus eliminating the possibility regardless of all possible outcomes.

6 seed: New England can assure itself of no worse than the 6 seed with a win in week 18 against the Jets. Buffalo can assure itself of no worse than the 5 seed by going 1-0-1 over its final two games. Pittsburgh can secure the 6 seed with wins over Miami and Chicago, Buffalo going 0-2 or 0-0-2 in their last two outings, and New England finishing with a loss or tie. The Steelers would hold the tie breaker by virtue of a better conference record. No AFC South team can beat the Steelers in this scenario as that team would have had to have lost the division in some manner meaning none would be able to beat a 10-7 record. Indianapolis could finish 9-7-1 and not win their division. They could get the 6 seed if Buffalo loses its final two games, New Engalnd loses its final game, and Pittsburgh loses one of its final two games. Jacksonville can only be in this spot if they had lost the division. In that case, their record would have to be 9-8 or 9-7-1. If they are 9-7-1, it would have meant the Colts had won the division. They would then need Buffalo to lose its final two games. New England to lose its final game, and the Steelers to lose one of its final two games. However, at 9-8, they cannot secure the 6 seed.

7 seed: We will start with the AFC South Teams. Obviously, Indianaplis, Jacksonville, or Tennessee would have won the division. This, of course, also means two of those three clubs did NOT win the division. If the Colts had won the division, then Jacksonville could not be better than 9-7-1 and Tennessee would not have ended with a .500 record. Houston, as stated above, could finish at 9-8 but cannot make the playoffs with an 8-8-1 slate. Jacksonville can catch the Patriots, in this scenario, if the Patriots should lose in week 18 and then the Jags win the tie breaker by Strength of Schedule!. They could pass the Bills if Buffalo drops both its games to the Jets and Giants. Otherwise, the Jags will miss the post-season. If the Colts have not won the division, then their record could also not be better than 9-7-1. They could catch the Bills if Buffalo loses its final two games or if the Bills go 0-1-1 as the Colts would win via the better conference record. They can pass the Patriots should New England lose its week 18 game due to also owning a better conference record. The Steelers, though, can claim the 7 seed (or better) with two wins or a win and a tie in its final two games combined with a loss or two ties by Buffalo and a loss by New England as they would hold the tie breaker over all potential teams with the same record due to the better conference record. So, a 9-7-1 Colts' team would miss the playoffs in this scenario even if they were to beat out both Buffalo and New England. 

Likely outcomes are below:It MUST be noted that there a complex myriad of potential results and anything, quite frankly, could happen!

1-Baltimore

2-Miami

3-Kansas City or Las Vegas

4-AFC South Champion

5-Kansas City or Las Vegas 

6-Buffalo (who holds the tie breaker over New England) or New England

7-Buffalo or New England

Toughest route: Tennessee cannot lose either of its last two games or have a tie.