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Season Predictions – AFC East
Jags have matched the Rams as the PAFL’s only 2-time repeat, but the question is….can they make it a 3-peat? If some of this sounds familiar, it’s because I started with last year’s predictions as a template…many of the same themes exist this season.
1) Jacksonville Jaguars
Why will the Jaguars win the division?
As in the last two seasons, Jacksonville doesn’t have any real holes to point to on their roster, but there are at least slivers of cracks this go around. Herbert is a solid franchise QB (though a bit less than the last 2 years), with 3 solid targets and a decent RB to score all the points they need. The DL, while not as dominant as last year, is still pretty darn good, and the back 7 will more than hold its own. It’s tough seeing Jacksonville being underdogs in many contests this year
Where could the Jaguars fall short?
It’s hard to ride the same roster 3 seasons in a row, and this year’s roster isn’t quite as good as last years; Herbert was only average, the running game behind Montgomery is not all that stellar, though all of them will be running behind one of the better O-lines in the league.
Verdict
Jacksonville will be back competing for the top seed, and while the playoffs are almost certain, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see the division beating itself up a bit as usual. Any decline in the offense is off-set by a very stellar secondary, which should keep most teams at bay. Jacksonville is certainly set up to get the 3-peat.
2) Buffalo Bills
How could the Bills upset the apple cart and steal the division from the Jags?
This is a year where Derrill will have the advantage at QB and RB, making their ball-control offense that much tougher. On the whole, their defense is very good, with their entire D above average, and they have a shutdown CB, which is great at neutralizing guys like Tyreek when it matters
Why the Bills might fall short
Quite honestly, they just don’t match Jacksonville across the board at most positions, having the better shutdown CB, but the rest of the D not quite measuring up. IMHO, the talent gap has closed a bit, which means Buffalo can pull off the win on any given week. All in all, the Bills are well poised to get double digit wins, but whether that equates to the division remains to be seen.
Verdict
I fully expect some of the best games this year to be between the Bills and Jaguars; while the division will be competitive, it may lead to Cincinnati grabbing top seed. Still, Buffalo should be one of the top teams in the AFC
3) Cleveland Browns
How can the Browns make the playoffs?
Matthew Stafford may be the most under-rated QB in the league, and has enough big-play ability to keep the chains moving, especially with the 1-2 punch of McCaffrey and Cook at RB. Play action should be the name of the game on offense, and should be able to control most games they will play this season.
How could Browns finish 3rd in the division?
Other than Joe Thuney, the rest of the OL is ordinary…against the top teams, 3rd and long might cause more than a few drives to putter out. While not a bad defense, they won’t be great at pressuring the QB, and getting turnovers on D, so it might get rough getting stops against the top teams in the conference
Verdict
Cleveland will be poking at the playoff balloon again this year, but I’m not sure they will challenge the top 2 teams in the division. Stanley knows how to coach, but for once, Stan can’t count on his D to shut teams completely down. Cleveland is in a bit of transition, and this season they might be see a bit of a dip in their fortunes.
4) New Orleans Saints
How could the Saints surprise and sneak into the top half of the division?
New Orleans shocked a lot of teams last season and managed to make the playoffs, but even Don would admit the last place schedule didn’t hurt. This year, the Saints are much better and look to be one of the top rosters in the East next year. So good coaching could coax this team to making the playoffs again, and very possibly past the Browns for 3rd
How could the Saints finish near the bottom of the division?
This is a very tough division, so the Saints will be playing quality opponents most weeks. When you look at the roster and see where many of these guys will be rated next season, I’m sure Don feels giddy…but it ain’t next year yet.
Verdict
New Orleans has a franchise QB, young players galore, and solid coaching to lean into…it just may be one more season before the Saints start to knock the door in.
5) Miami Dolphins
How could Miami stay out of the basement?
Simply put…better players and better coaching. The Dolphins have underperformed ever since the former commissioner left, but Jason is a good coach and a good GM, and will milk every bit of talent out of this team, something that couldn’t be said in years past.
How could Dolphins finish in the basement?
Talent. While Jason has done a lot with team so far, the other 4 teams are simply more talented. While there are teams that aren’t as good as the Dolphins, unfortunately they aren’t in the AFC East and don’t play 8 games against them.
Verdict
My first major prediction…Jason will score an upset or two in the division and make games interesting, but the great majority of wins Miami gets will be out of the division, making it likely they will get a last place schedule next season with a much better team, and we all saw how the Saints did with a last place schedule last season.
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