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Season Predictions – AFC West
Sometimes it seems as though change comes slow in the PAFL, but there are times when the bull rushes the china shop and tears it all down. This looks to be a case here, where the San Francisco 49ers appear to have pushed their way to the top of the division discussion.
1) San Francisco 49ers
Why will the 49ers win the division?
Shawn Roach has taken over San Francisco, and while the previous regime had done a nice job acquiring talent, Shawn is aggressive and takes a “satisfaction now” approach. While I’m sure he would love to have a franchise QB, that is about the only thing he lacks and Jake Browning will be a bear come playoff time.
Where could the 49ers fall short?
He has 1 solid RB in Kyren Williams, and can expect a 5 game stretch where Williams won’t be available, so he will have to work around that whenever that happens. To a lesser degree, that is also an issue at other positions, but coaching can help; Shawn is savvy, and if he manages to go 2-3 over those 5 games, he will be well positioned to win the division.
Verdict
I’ve coached against Shawn in other leagues, and he is every bit as savvy as his father, who is one of the best around as well. Shawn might not make the #1 seed, but he will make the playoffs, and that will be no fun for any team he might face.
2) Kansas City Chiefs
How could the Chiefs win the division?
The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, and Alex has built continued the rebuild of this Chiefs squad into a solid bunch, with a legit franchise QB in Tua. There are solid targets to throw to, and a solid if not spectacular OL, so I would expect the Chiefs to continue to score this season.
Why the Chiefs could finish further down the division?
The front 7 on the defense is solid, but there is not a ton of top talent in the secondary. Now, compared to past Kansas City secondaries, this one looks to be bound for Canton, but at least there is depth. They may have some games where they will need to outscore their opponents rather than stop them…can Alex outcoach in those games?
Verdict
There should be a fun 3-way battle in this division, and Kansas City can just as easily win the division as they can miss the playoffs. This team will only get better and should make for some fun division games.
3) Las Vegas Raiders
How can the Raiders keep their division title?
Well, they still have a lot of talent, though maybe not as much as in previous seasons. Geno Smith regressed a bit last year in the NFL, thus also in the PAFL this year…that said he is still a solid starter. He has two of the best WR’s to throw to, and the front 7 are still legit. This team will still have games where they spank some very good teams
How could Las Vegas finish 3rd?
There are a few chinks in the armor besides at QB; once you get past Robinson at RB, the production drops off significantly, making the Raiders a bit predictable. CB Jalen Ramsey is their one shutdown CB, but will miss a significant chunk of the season, and after him, it is a bit iffy
Verdict
Ever grow a fruit tree? The best way to get a maximum crop is proper pruning, and just on the surface, it appears KC and SF have been pruning just a bit better the last couple of seasons. This is totally gut of course, and if the Raiders appear at the top of the standings I will be wrong, but not surprised.
4) Seattle Seahawks
How could the Seahawks push to be in the top 3?
Boy, I wish I could lay it out where Seattle pushes the top of the division this season….but I can’t. Don’t get me wrong, John has done an outstanding job building this team up, but as of right now, he is closer to the bottom of the division than the top.
How could the Seahawks finish last?
Seattle has focused on their OL and have taken the “flood the zone” philosophy to do so, which is very common. When you do that, however, something will be left behind and that is the DL, which is very, very thin. While John addressed that in the rookie draft, this season will be rough, and could be exploited late in games.
Verdict
Seattle has actually come a far way towards respectability, though the playoffs appear out of reach, even with a last place schedule. While I think they will manage to sneak out of the basement in the division, it will still be a long season for the Seahawks
5) Denver Broncos
How could Denver finish out of last place?
This team…this season…it will be very hard. They simply lack the talent this season to make a go of it, and most likely will be looking at possibly the top pick in the draft.
How could Seattle finish in the basement?
As the great philosopher Willy Wonka once said, you have to sometimes go back to go forward (or something along those lines) and if you go up and down the Denver roster, you see guys with arrows pointing up beside their future values. When you add their draft haul from last year, and the draft picks to come this year, this will not be a trip to the basement for long. I have seen Rudy in the draft room, and this will become a well-balanced tough team in a couple of seasons.
Verdict
On the surface, you could say the Broncos are not as good as last year, but they are younger, can bid on free agents, and will have plenty of picks to build this team the right way.
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